Epsom Derby 2011

My thoughts in full on this great spectacle to follow tomorrow or Wednesday.

Famed as the ultimate test of the thoroughbred racehorse, runners are expected to travel from Ireland and France to take on the home challenge which will be led by Carlton House under the ownership of The Queen.

Im going to go for Native Khan at 10/1.

hurlingguru wrote:Im going to go for Native Khan at 10/1.

No concerns on the stamina front HG?

Thomas Clarke wrote:

hurlingguru wrote:Im going to go for Native Khan at 10/1.

No concerns on the stamina front HG?

I have a little but there are only 2 distance winners in the field and Murtagh must see something he likes in Native Khan.

hurlingguru wrote: Murtagh must see something he likes in Native Khan.

I'd say he liked the chance to get on the 5th favourite, considering he wasn't asked to be on any of the first four! Still though, a good man to have on board.

Native Khan ran well in the guineas, but what Frankel did that day makes it hard to pick out form lines from everything else that happened behind. Native Khan looks like he will get further than a mile, but I'm not so sure that he will get a mile and a half. If he does, he will be very hard to beat.

Between Recital and the Queens one, Fabre is only chancing his arm with his.
Ballydoyle won the Derrinstown with Recital, that is their recognized no1 trial for Epsom and KF has plumped for him ahead of the admirable but evidently limited(at this level) Native Khan.The Criterium winner has his quirks, high head carraige being perhaps the least of them but is proven at Gr 1 level and the master of Epsom, King Fallon has spoken. Seville lacks toe, forget the rest.
Carlton House v Recital, at the odds it has to be Recital

There appears to be niggling questions about Carlton House after a small set back after work yesterday. Something about the positioning of hocks or the like. Stoute says he's taking it handy for the next few days but the horse "should be fine".....I'm therefore wary....15/8 Powers and 3.38 Betfair as of 30 mins ago.

I hear the horse is in fine fettle and just penned some correspondence thanking the 'Rebel' (ha ha ha) county for treating the owner so well! Which they are slavishly enjoying by the way. Corkshire indeed!

X-rays for Derby favourite after filling in leg jointDante Stakes winner Carlton House, the hot favourite for Saturday's Investec Derby at Epsom, has been taken for x-rays after filling in his near-fore joint was spotted at evening stables on Monday night, but is still expected to line up in the Blue Riband.

A small potential strain is the probability of what it was The colt is owned by The Queen, whose racing manager, John Warren, explained on Tuesday: "Carlton House galloped on Sunday and did a nice six furlong blow, his last important blow before the Derby and on Monday he did a routine canter.

"At evening stables on Monday night Sir Michael noted that his front joints were not a pair and this morning he decided to take a precautionary x-ray of his near-fore joint which was the one that was marginally filled. It revealed no abnormalities which was a huge relief.

"He decided to give the horse just a trotting exercise this morning and he was sound and he's having an easy day. It will be a watching brief from now on. A small potential strain is the probability of what it was, just tweaked it a little, and hopefully he'll resume regular exercise for the rest of the week which will only involve cantering rather than anything faster.

"I would say at this point, from what I understand the injury to be, he has a pretty good chance of being there. The next few days will obviously reveal a little more but the trainer is optimistic and hopeful that the horse is still on target."

Filed on 31 May 2011 @ 13:39

Things looking less positive for Carlton House. A final decision on whether or not he runs will be made on Friday.

Although I've never fancied it to win, it would take away from the race massively if he doesn't run, and so I hope he gets the green light.

My thoughts on some of the leading protagonists:

Carlton House - I was impressed with how he quickened in the Dante, but the reviews of that race suggest that it was unsatisfactorily run, and consequently inconclusive. It's possible Seville will do better over a longer trip at a faster gallop, but I felt Carlton House was a worthy favourite leading up to the race. The injury scare makes things a bit more chaotic and my feeling is that Stoute would not run if it were any other race but the fact it's the Queen's horse and it is the Derby complicates agendas. May well run, but on the balance of it, I'd be looking elsewhere.

Native Khan - Lots of Derby winners have used the Guineas as their prep, most recently Sir Percy but this is not a horse I'd be backing to do a repeat. The fact Fallon has chosen Recital ahead of him says a lot.

Pour Moi - I seen his last win in France, and it was quite breath-taking to be honest, last to first under a hand ride. He should improve again. The big thing here is Fabre's dislike for Epsom, I suspect Coolmore are forcing him to run because they have doubts about the ones in Ireland, possibly worth considering when looking at O'Briens.

Recital - This is Ballydoyle's best chance of winning it in my opinion. Not a lot of Derby winners run over 10f at 2, but this lad ran away with a French Group One at Saint-Cloud, and since that win has been highly touted. He showed his quirks in the Derrinstown trial, and it's worth bearing mind that of the five horses he beat there, each had only one win to each their names - a maiden.

Seville - What a lot of people seem to forget is that Ballydoyle never send their number one Derby contender hope to the Dante. Not to say Seville can't win but it's an indication of the peaking order down there. I think the horse is a follower, rather than a leader, and I'd have doubts about him in a tight finish.

Vadamar - Now this is the real dark-horse of the race. Pour Moi beat him in the trial but Vadamar was the red hot favourite going into it, and his trainer was talking about a tilt at this race from an early stage. The fact his connections are still prepared to run after his last race speaks volumes.

I'll go:
1st - Vadamar
2nd - Pour Moi
3rd - Recital

I have wrote some more about the decision to run Vadamar if people want to read it:

If it's connection's intention to still run, then I think the hint should be taken.

His Royal Highness The Aga Khan never has horses at Epsom to make up the numbers. Just look at his last three Derby runners:

2006: Visindar was the red hot 2/1 favourite but could only manage 5th. Never right after that, running just the once - beaten by Numide in a conditions race.
2003: Alamshar ran for John Oxx in 2003 following his win in the Derrinstown, but finished 3rd behind Kris Kin and The Great Gatsby. Ran four times subsequently winning the Irish Derby and the King George, and the only horse ever to beat the great Dalakhani.
2000: Sinndar won the Derby at 7/1 for John Oxx and Johnny Murtagh, ran three times after that, winning the Irish Derby, Prix Niel and the Arc.

Not sure of his runners before that.

I'm almost 100% this will be Alain De Royer Dupre's first Derby runner as well?

His trips across the water are usually few and far between, mostly sending over his fillies and mares such as Pride, Sabana Perdida, Reggane and Darjina. Siyouni was a rare rare runner in a colts Group One for him last year. I think only Dalghar ran in one since Sendawar was first in the James Palace and then fourth in the Prince of Wales' in '99 and '00.

If this horse really needs 12f, then why not skip the Derbys and wait for the Grand Prix De Paris on Bastille Day - seems to be what they usually like to do. The pair of them have had the likes of Dalakhani, Darsi and Montmartre, yet were any of those ever under consideration for Epsom?

The vibes were Epsom Derby from an early stage, and they must still think they've a very live contender, after his last race, to still run.

And also, there's Lemiare. The best turf jockey in the world with an excellent record in the UK.

I think 19.5 on here is still quite big, considering the giant connections.

Great stuff Loyal, if you forgive Vadamers last run he should have every chance. Carlon House will NOT run so it's France v Ireland, I seem to recall your adulation of Theirri Henry on these pages way back in the day so it's no surprise whose flag you've nailed your colours to. Ireland and specifically Recital for me though, two words King Fallon

As I'm going to the Derby on Saturday, I've taken a good look at all the main contenders in this year's race. My take on the main challengers is as follows:

Pour Moi - Based solely on his win in the Greffulhe, this looks to be a well balanced horse who will go very well. I was tempted at 14-1 following that race, but my ante-post bet was on Frankel, and I was reluctant to go in again after that went up in flames. Pour Moi shows a fine turn of pace in that race, and visibly quickens when Barzalona asks him to. His workout on Thursday was also very impressive, and his neat style should be made for Tattenham Corner. The horse should get the trip and he has the speed, but the big concern is that he is a hold-up horse, and Epsom doesn't suit fast finishers.

Carlton House - Impressive in the Dante, but not to the extent that he has been hyped. It was a very slow race, and although he finished quickly, you'd have to be a bit concerned that he had just 5 lengths over Pisco Sour. The injury concerns make him look less appealing to me. If the horse is fit, it could win, as it has the speed, but a fair price here would have been 3-1 - before the injury.

Recital - Is gaining support, although that may be due to some misconceived idea that Fallon chose him for any reason other than trying to get future rides on Ballydoyle horses. A big horse who should improve, but looks unbalanced to me. He reminds me a bit of Fame and Glory - fast but without acceleration. If he gets round Tattenham Corner in good shape he will be in the thick of it, but not convinced that dry ground will be suitable. Fallon is raving about him, but he will have to have come on a lot.

Seville - I think that this will be the big drifter on the day. I've heard lots of people say that they wouldn't be surprised to see him reverse the Dante form with Carlton House, yet no-one seems to be actually tipping him to do it. The horse seems one-paced to me, and didn't seem to have much stomach for a finish either.

Native Khan - Placed in the guineas, as were Sir Percy, New Approach and Sea the Stars (winner) in the last 5 years, so has to be respected. Looks to be a nice horse, but I'd be surprised if he has the stamina to out-run the likes of Recital or Pour Moi.

Vadamar - Just saw that he has been cut to 12-1, having started the week at 40-1. On the evidence of the Greffulhe, he won't beat Pour Moi, but connections have said that he had a cut leg in that race, so perhaps there is more to come. Interesting, but he doesn't look like a Derby winner to me.

I like Pour Moi, and have done for some time. Winning from the back of the field is a big ask, especially for a young jockey, but the horse looks classy. Stamina looks assured, as does speed and balance - the one to beat. Carlton House, if fit, and Recital look next best.

More in depth post I did earlier on TFK

Sadly, it looks like her majesty will have no representative in the derby judging by the ongoing drift on Betfair for AP favourite Carlton Houes. I think only two can win it in that case. Recital v Poor moi. Both Coolmore and it brings up other interesting clashes King Fallon v Prince Barzelona, O Brien v Fabre.
A quick look at the other contenders
Seville
Honest and resolute but vulnerable perhaps to something with a greater turn of foot at the business end.
Vadamer
The Aga Khans one was confirmed for Epsom today. That one started odds on in the Group 2 Prix Greffulhe that Poor moi won lto but finished a disappointing 3rd. If you can forgive that run would be interesting at bigger odds but it may well hust be that Aga Khan wants to be represented in the race.
Ocean War
Godolphins rep. Not overly convincing in listed race he won lto. Barzelona won on this one last two times but now switched to Coolmores Poor Moi, doesn't saymuch for his chances. A case of what might have been for Godolphin with regards to Casamento
Native Khan
Done little wrong and the step up in trip likely to suit the Guineas 3rd. Still would be a major surprise if at least two or three of the afore mentioned do not turn out to be good enough to finish ahead and Fallon swithing to Recital speaks volumes.

Poor Moi might well be good enough to win but baesd on the Fallon and Derrinstown factors I have taken some of the 5s available on Recital but beraring in mind Coolmores gambles this season, any market moves for their horses, espicially on the day of the race should not be ignored lightly. I am hoping that said moves will be on Recital

They are two very good previews.

I think the big thing as far as Vadamar's chances go, is that connections are still willing to run. In the trial, Pour Moi is comfortably the superior racehorse, but if the story about the cut leg is as true as they say, then you can put a line through Vadamar's running. Pour Moi still beat beat good horses easily as well. One negative that occured to me today is that the Aga Khan has Baraan running in the French Derby on Sunday, and Alain De Royer Dupre has two to choose from, so it's possible they don't want everything clashing. Or maybe it's overthinking things as Vadamar was being mentioned as a Derby contender very early in the season.

I like the comparison between Recital and Fame and Glory, and to be fair the latter was second to an exceptional racehorse in his Derby so it's not an unfair comparison on Recital's part.

The opposition to Carlton House is strong and it looks like he'll be a non-runner. Could be as Mossbags says a clash between O'Brien and the two French maestros with Gosden and Dunlop representing the home challenge.

I'll stick with Vadamar who really appeals at the prices but my own interpretation of the formbook makes Pour Moi the most likely winner.

Anyone else see the news just there? Native Khans dickhead owners are seeking a court order barring Fallon from riding in the Derby, alledgedly he had signed a guarantee he would ride for them at Epsom. Ruling expected in the morning.
What a load of old cock

Not a sport...

Boxtyeater wrote:Not a sport...

STS wept

Breaking News: Kieren Fallon prevented from riding in the Derby at Epsom today by a High Court Injunction.

hurlingguru wrote:Breaking News: Kieren Fallon prevented from riding in the Derby at Epsom today by a High Court Injunction.

#
A lot less hopeful now, this episode has ruined the derby as far as Im concerned

My newspaper, "The Guardian", says to back Treasure Something each way. Trained by someone called O'Brien.

Great day at the Derby yesterday and, as predicted on here, a big win on Pour Moi to cap it off. Stunning performance by 19 year old Mickael Barzalona, who gave the winner a flawless ride, and then had the French arrogance to showboat in front of Liz, the Greek, Wills, Harry and the crew as he passed the winning post. Thrilling race, and perhaps the most amazing final furlong in Derby history.

Watched a bit of the coverage on BBC afterwards, and was stunned to hear Clare Balding ask Michael Tabor if he was disappointed that his horse had beaten the Queen's!

Thomas Clarke wrote:Watched a bit of the coverage on BBC afterwards, and was stunned to hear Clare Balding ask Michael Tabor if he was disappointed that his horse had beaten the Queen's!

Disappointed TC??? Fawning media and Royal family?? Going on for years. I hear there were many tears shed down in the Republic Monarchy of Cork too ....

True Jayo, and then they tried to say that Carlton House had been impeded 4 furlongs out (yes, 4 furlongs out!). Although fair play to Willie Carson for saying that CH just wan't good enough.