Re: 2010 GAA Betting thread

[Boxtyeater]

i can.

Louth not good travellers -

There's no such thing as a good traveller.....

[old98!]

how can you make such a statement singing bernie walshe you cou;dnt bate her

[Grenvile]

There's no such thing as a good traveller.....

Think i'm hitting your stomping ground next weekend Boxty!

[Guest]

Probability is my favourite area of maths! Followed by integration.

I gave up doing accumulators of three or more selections the day I derived the following.

Lets take the odds of a coin toss:
Odds of landing on heads - 1/1 (50% chance)
Odds of landing on tails - 1/1 (50% chance)

But the principle of a bookmaker is to make a book so only an idiot would offer those odds. The real odds would be:
Odds of landing on heads - 5/6 (54.54% chance)
Odds of landing on tails - 5/6 (54.54% chance)

And an over-round of just over nine euro. Therefore the bookmaker makes nine euro for every hundred euro staked.

Now for the interesting part.
Odds of landing on heads, followed by another heads - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)
Odds of landing on heads, followed by tails - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by another tails - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by heads - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)

But again, bookmakers aren't idiots, they want to make money so in reality:
Odds of landing on heads, followed by another heads - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)
Odds of landing on heads, followed by tails - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by another tails - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by heads - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)

And everytime, you add more selections in, the probability gets more stacked in the bookmaker's favour.

Your point is valid but in reality is the punter not going to get fleeced in any event once he wants to get leverage - ie turn a small stake into a a large return.
using you example the return is no different if the punter backs a 5/6 single and then wishes to reinvest his total return ie 1.83 @ 5/6 which is 2.36 starting point and so on.
So you give the same % cut to the bookie. Obviously the punter could back a long shot single to try and get leverage on his stake but I assume that the over-round on a long shot is a lot greater. A bookie's competiveness is gauged by his price on the shorter price horses so this is where his margin is tighter A horse with a 3% probability of winning is more likely to be 20/1 than 33.3/1.

A punter can get leverage on a spreadbet but of course his stake risk is much higher and also the bookie spread can vary by sport. e.g a spreadbet site might offer joint favourites both at -1.0 each for a GAA match. when the likely margin of victory is only going to be 2-3 points. The 2 point "bookie" spread and draw factor makes this a huge margin.

Best option is probably single or multi bets on an exchange where at least there is fixed % off the winning return - e.g 5%. - However these can apply in inverse as the fact that the % is off the return including stakes actually makes it better value the longer the oddds.

[bocerty]

Kildare
Armagh
Mayo
Down
Cavan
Sligo

£10 pays £215

i wasnt a million miles away with this one - typical i suppose

[Jayo Cluxton]

i can.

Louth not good travellers - Sligo good at home and will be anxious to get off the mark after losing by only one point away to favourites Antrim. Louth beat a depleted Wexford.

Still can't see it.

[Dougal]

ye,it is unlikely,but it'l be close,so i do think it's worth money.

+3 would of still been good money.

[mossbags]

ye,it is unlikely,but it'l be close,so i do think it's worth money.

+3 would of still been good money.

Listening to mossbags would be even better money. 100% record here and that despite tipping Mayo! Might have change my name to moneybags

[Jayo Cluxton]

100% record here and that despite tipping Mayo! Might have change my name to moneybags

Yeah cheers Moss - I took your advice and stuck €100 on Portumna yesterday and went in to collect my €101 today. My bookie was really sickened .....

[Dougal]

my tips so far would of won people more money though.

[mossbags]

100% record here and that despite tipping Mayo! Might have change my name to moneybags

Yeah cheers Moss - I took your advice and stuck €100 on Portumna yesterday and went in to collect my €101 today. My bookie was really sickened .....

Where/When was such advice administered Jayo

Those who actually pay attention wont need reminding that the profit is now at 320 after 2 bets advised(Louth and Mayo) with 1 outstanding on Corofin next Sunday. Stay tuned for more money

[Boxtyeater]

Where/When was such advice administered Jayo

Those who actually pay attention wont need reminding that the profit is now at 320 after 2 bets advised(Louth and Mayo) with 1 outstanding on Corofin next Sunday. Stay tuned for more money

Hey you...Jog on..

[clash-of-da-ash]

Just counting my winnings from the Portumna match. 2.5 points.

[mossbags]

Just counting my winnings from the Portumna match. 2.5 points.

[mossbags]

Where/When was such advice administered Jayo

Those who actually pay attention wont need reminding that the profit is now at 320 after 2 bets advised(Louth and Mayo) with 1 outstanding on Corofin next Sunday. Stay tuned for more money

Hey you...Jog on..

Move aside please Leitrim. I, along with the help of some fellow concerned citizens, am trying to get the national economy back on track with our brilliant money making advice on this thread! If the likes of you and your 'jog on, turn in, drop out' pill taking hippy chums have no genuine contribution to be making then leave it to grown ups like my good self, Dougal and Old to study the form

[mossbags]

match odds for the weekends hurling
20th Feb 2010
19:30 Tipperary v Kilkenny 6/5 10/1 4/5

21st Feb 2010
14:30 Cork v Offaly 1/5 14/1 7/2

14:30 Limerick v Galway 7/1 16/1 1/25

14:30 Waterford v Dublin 8/13 10/1 6/4



21st Feb 2010
Vlub Football Semis

14:00 St. Galls v Corofin
4/5

7/1

5/4
14:00 Portlaoise v Kilmurry-Ibrickane
1/4

9/1 7/2

Tipp look interesting at 5/6 at home to Ballyhale-less Cats. The hanicap will be worth a look in the Limerick game. Corofin already advised in the football. Will confirm bets in due course.

[Dougal]

i missed a NUIM AIT DCU treble today in the sigerson,totaly forgot about it.paid close to 15/1 if i worked it out right.im not in good humour.

[Dougal]

also good odds on portlaoise @ -3. i cant get them at work,but i remember they were good.

[mossbags]

Balance +322.50

This weeks bets

2 point win on Tipp to beat Kilkenny @ Even money
Return of 200

Already advised
1 point on Corofin to beat St Galls @ 5/4
Return of 125

Happy punting

[mossbags]

Kilkenny team:

P.J. Ryan, Canice Hickey, Brian Hogan, John Dalton, Tommy Walsh, Jackie
Tyrell, J.J. Delaney, Willie Dwyer, P.J. Delaney, Richie Hogan, Michael
Rice, Aidan Fogarty, Michael Grace, Martin Comerfrod, Richie Power.

Substitutes: David Herity, Richie O' Neill, James Ryall, John Tennyson,
Damian Fogarty, Sean Cummins, Eoin McGrath, Paddy Hogan, John Mulhall.

TIPP

Brendan Cummins

C O’Brien, P Curran, B Maher

D Fanning, P Maher, S Maher

B Dunne, S McGrath

S Hennessy, S Callanan, H Maloney

E Kelly, M Webster, N McGrath.

Both fielding strong enough-ish teams, Can see this ending in a draw but hoping Tipp might just want it that little bit more espicially as its in Thurles. Here's to hoping

[mossbags]

Bank 522.50 with 300 on top of that as 'live'

Here's a price I just came across that I think is way too big

Carlow 5/2 to beat Antrim

1 point advised

[mossbags]

This weekends free money

Advised
Offaly +13 at Kilkenny @ evens : 2points
(200 staked to won 200)

Laois +7 v Clare @ 11/10 : 2 points
200 staked to win 220

Already Advised
Corofin 1point @5/4
(Corofin currently trading @ 13/8, Bet of the year potential here, I might well borrow from another bank and lump on after teams are named!)

[mossbags]

With a starting bank of 500 we have now, in the space of just 3 weeks, reached a clean profit of 522.50. Thats a running total of 1022.50 and a return of over 100%. Here are all the advised bets

2 points on Louth to beat Wexford, @ 4/5 - WIN
profit 160.00

1 point Mayo to beat Tyrone @ 13/8 - WIN
profit 162.50

2 point win on Tipp to beat Kilkenny @ Even money - VOID

1 point Carlow 5/2 to beat Antrim - LOSE
Loss 100

1 point Corofin @5/4 to beat St Galls - LOSE
Loss 100

Offaly +13 at Kilkenny @ evens : 2points - WIN
profit 200.00

Laois +7 v Clare @ 11/10 : 2 points - WIN
profit 220.00

Normally after I've doubled the bank I would increase the stake and make some real money but I don't believe the form has settled down yet so I might just hold the profit in reserve for now and stick with the current betting plan for now. Stay tuned for more outrageous profits next week.

[mossbags]

Bank 1022.50 (+522.50)

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Tricky week this. Mayo should beat the Dubs at home I reckon, gonna take a wee shot on them going to town.

ADVISED
Mayo (-5) v Dublin, 0.5 @ 3/1
ie 50 staked to win 150

[bocerty]

Cavan Offaly Dublin & Kerry all to win pays about 13/1 - worth a punt i'd say

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