Re: 2010 GAA Betting thread

**bocerty** Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:38 pm

samin10 wrote:hope you're right bocerty, but i would not back Armagh in national league football and especially not away to meath. We have a horrible record in navan

I wouldnt back Meath any time of the year so its the lesser of two evils - looking at Armaghs half forward line its like the Harlem Globetrotters basketball team the size of the fuckers.

Guest Sat Feb 06, 2010 6:53 pm

bocerty wrote:
samin10 wrote:hope you're right bocerty, but i would not back Armagh in national league football and especially not away to meath. We have a horrible record in navan

I wouldnt back Meath any time of the year so its the lesser of two evils - looking at Armaghs half forward line its like the Harlem Globetrotters basketball team the size of the fuckers.

meath have only been beaten twice or three times in about 7 years at home, usually hammer Armagh any time we go. In saying that i wouldnt really fear them come championship time.

Armagh half forwards are big alright but the harlem globetrotters have skill. Only messing, Mal Mackin won an under 21 all-ireland in 04 and was a regular and successful half forward for us in 2005. Played in the epic Armagh v Tyrone games of that year. He had some bad injuries since but if he gets back to that standard he will be a cert to start for us. Charlie Vernon (fellow club man) is the big hope of the county, last year was supposed to be his big breakthrough year and by all accounts was flying untill he got his jaw broke just before the tyrone game, only had a weeks training before the monaghan game and probably should not have played. Still big hope held for this beast of a man (about 14 and a half stone of solid muscle). Joe Feeney is a young fella,seen him play a few mckenna cup games last year where he looked skillfull and usefull but too gangly, apparently he has really filled out and has a real presence about him. Hopefully his skill and speed will not be casualties of putting weight and muscle on. Anyway i am off to the pub to watch it.

**old98!** Sat Feb 06, 2010 11:56 pm

old98! wrote:getting away from the league wexford and dublin in the walsh cup its in gorey tomorrow and if wexfords showing last week against A SECOND STRING and very un organised ucd team is anything to go by dublin are brilliant value to win well id say at 6/4 hate to back against my own county but ill hate to get some of that

Wexford couldnt win and dublin down to 13men for about 15mins easy money!! worst game of hurling tho wicked boring more people in the bar watching liverpool everton

**johnnos bulls** Sun Feb 07, 2010 12:08 pm

Vernon is a powerhouse of a man alright, but is he a centre forward?

Some of the ball going in during the first half to MCd and co. was appalling and a lot of it came from Vernon. High aimless ball that only started to pay dividends late on when the Meath men got tired.

**Grenvile** Sun Feb 07, 2010 4:28 pm

Boxtyeater wrote:A drowning man will grab a reed......

Hope is a great thing, maybe the best of things! Very Happy

I'm raging i couldnt get to the game, refreshing the BBC updates page just isnt the same.. Can't wait to see where they got 2-20 from!

**Dougal** Sun Feb 07, 2010 7:30 pm

whahey,1st bet ive won in a long time.

jon,of the top of my head

ray galligan 0-10 (0-07 frees)
mackey 1-01
eoin mcguigan 1-0
nesty 0-02 (0-1 free)
givney 0-02
mccutcheon,mckeever,eddie 0-01

not sure but givney and nesty might of scored another point

**mullins** Sun Feb 07, 2010 7:46 pm

Dougal wrote:whahey,1st bet ive won in a long time.

jon,of the top of my head

ray galligan 0-10 (0-07 frees)
mackey 1-01
eoin mcguigan 1-0
nesty 0-02 (0-1 free)
givney 0-02
mccutcheon,mckeever,eddie 0-01

not sure but givney and nesty might of scored another point

dougal good win for cavan hows nesty getting on..

**Loyal2TheRoyal** Sun Feb 07, 2010 7:49 pm

David Givney will be young player of the year in 2010.

I was raging that the Star didn't put him in the Fantasy GAA competition. Still my inclusion of James Kielt was a shrewd move so it seems. Is Charlie a brother of his?

**Dougal** Sun Feb 07, 2010 11:45 pm

mullins,nesty is a great addition,can pick out some great passes.scored the sweetest point from play.as good as he was from the placed ball in the mckenna cup,it looks like we've found someone even better.

loyal,hes made a big improvement,was a big fan of him last year,and looks like he'l do the business this year.i thought i saw him in fantasy GAA thing?

**mossbags** Mon Feb 08, 2010 4:15 am

Some outstanding tipsters amongst here with Dougal(looked at your acc that time and agreed with it but of course never extended that agreement to a bookie of any description 2010 GAA Betting thread - Page 2 Icon_porc

2010 GAA Betting thread - Page 2 Kopfschuettel

) and good ol' Old in particular standing out.
Louths win today means my own bank is nicely in the black, would just like to send my thanks to RLF for that, this being his hour of need n'all 2010 GAA Betting thread - Page 2 Icon_twisted

**Grenvile** Mon Feb 08, 2010 9:07 am

Dougal wrote:mullins,nesty is a great addition,can pick out some great passes.scored the sweetest point from play.as good as he was from the placed ball in the mckenna cup,it looks like we've found someone even better.

loyal,hes made a big improvement,was a big fan of him last year,and looks like he'l do the business this year.i thought i saw him in fantasy GAA thing?

Thats great to hear, hopefully now they can build on that result. Big game against Antrim next week they should be out to get revenge for the Ulster Semi.
I was a big critic of Givney and thought it was madness including him last year, thankfully I was completely wrong. A future midfiled pairing of himself and McKiernan (if the latter gets his injury and previous problems behind him) looks likely.
Well done on the Acca Dougal.

**old98!** Wed Feb 10, 2010 11:58 am

Anyone notice any good value in this weekends games!!!

**clash-of-da-ash** Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:29 pm

I'll put 100 points of my 500 on Meath to beat Down at 13/8. I'll also put 100 on Newtownshandrum to beat Ballyhale at 6/4. I'll also put 50 on Corofin to beat St. Galls at 5/4 and put the rest 250 on Portumna to beat Dunloy 1/100.

Thats 227.5 if all come off.

**Jayo Cluxton** Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:35 pm

clash-of-da-ash wrote:Portumna to beat Dunloy 1/100.

Thats some price alright.

**old98!** Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:41 pm

louth to beat sligo 7/4 might take a bit of that

**Jayo Cluxton** Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:47 pm

old98! wrote:louth to beat sligo 7/4 might take a bit of that

Sligo at home ...... dunno Old - can't see it!

**Dougal** Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:50 pm

i can.

**Jayo Cluxton** Wed Feb 10, 2010 1:56 pm

Dougal wrote:i can.

Louth not good travellers - Sligo good at home and will be anxious to get off the mark after losing by only one point away to favourites Antrim. Louth beat a depleted Wexford.

Still can't see it.

**Dougal** Wed Feb 10, 2010 2:02 pm

ye,it is unlikely,but it'l be close,so i do think it's worth money.

**mossbags** Wed Feb 10, 2010 6:18 pm

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Odds for this weekends games. Tried pasting on here but came up as 'too big'

Tipp 7/4 to beat Geezers shower at home looks juicy. Also contemplating a wee nibble on London 15/2 to beat the footballing behemoth that is Waterford.
Agree with Clash that Newtown have a serious chance against the Shams.

Edit
These are not my bets for the week, just browsing. Will confirm bets after studying the form a bit more in depth.

**johnnos bulls** Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:20 pm

I think had london been playing Waterford in ruislip then it would be worth a punt.
Seemingly London aren't as strong as were to be expected either with some players having headed back home. That saying I seen waterford beat a terrible leitrim side last weekend. Waterford are absolutely shocking.

**Boxtyeater** Wed Feb 10, 2010 9:24 pm

johnnos bulls wrote: That saying I seen waterford beat a terrible leitrim side last weekend. Waterford are absolutely shocking.

Terrible doesn't even come close Johnno...What's above WOEFUL in the horrorbags lexicon??

**mossbags** Fri Feb 12, 2010 1:26 pm

Balance +160

This weeks bets

1 point on Corofin to beat St Galls @ 5/4
Return of 125

1 point Mayo to beat Tyrone @ 13/8
Return of 162.50

**bocerty** Fri Feb 12, 2010 5:55 pm

Kildare
Armagh
Mayo
Down
Cavan
Sligo

£10 pays £215

**Loyal2TheRoyal** Fri Feb 12, 2010 6:52 pm

Probability is my favourite area of maths! Followed by integration.

I gave up doing accumulators of three or more selections the day I derived the following.

Lets take the odds of a coin toss:
Odds of landing on heads - 1/1 (50% chance)
Odds of landing on tails - 1/1 (50% chance)

But the principle of a bookmaker is to make a book so only an idiot would offer those odds. The real odds would be:
Odds of landing on heads - 5/6 (54.54% chance)
Odds of landing on tails - 5/6 (54.54% chance)

And an over-round of just over nine euro. Therefore the bookmaker makes nine euro for every hundred euro staked.

Now for the interesting part.
Odds of landing on heads, followed by another heads - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)
Odds of landing on heads, followed by tails - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by another tails - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by heads - 3/1 (1/1*1/1)

But again, bookmakers aren't idiots, they want to make money so in reality:
Odds of landing on heads, followed by another heads - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)
Odds of landing on heads, followed by tails - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by another tails - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)
Odds of landing on tails, followed by heads - 2.36/1 (5/6*5/6)

And everytime, you add more selections in, the probability gets more stacked in the bookmaker's favour.

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