The "8th" team

A lot of punditry this year can't see past Cork, Kerry, Dublin, Donegal, Tyrone and Mayo with a few adding in a Kildare as a seventh team. I find it hard to argue. If the draw is kind to them all, they should all be in Croke Park for the Quarter-Finals. That leaves the likes of Down, Meath, Derry, Laois and Monaghan in the race for the last spot but I think that final QF place could be claimed by Cavan. I would rate them a live threat to the top 7. They'll be a dangerous side with all the momentum they've built up. A win over Monaghan and a favourable draw in Round 4 of the Qualifiers (just checked there - a 6 day turnaround between Ulster Final on the 21st and the qualifiers on the 27th - a massive negative) could see Cavan in an All-Ireland QF. They could be the type side that would overcome a 6 day turnaround if getting a favourable draw (if they avoid Tyrone and the losers of Dublin/Kildare, I would consider that favourable).

I don't see Cavan up there at all - certainly not this year anyway.  They sneaked past an impotent Fermanagh side, and Armagh were a total shambles  in the preliminary round.  Monaghan will give them their fill of it in the semi final.

I fancied Down to beat Derry, and felt that they did so pretty convincingly.  To my eyes, they are better than anything that was in divisions 2 or 3 this year and, while far from great, they would be the '8th team' at present.

Loyal I can never tell if you have an affinity for Cavan because you live on the border or if you dislike us and show that by building us up constantly! Very hard to see us getting to an AIQF and I'd imagine if Monaghan beat us you'll see at least 3/4 team members head for The States. We have made good progress this year under Hyland and hopefully within the next 2/3 years we will be a decent Division 2 side with the prospect of a Croker appearance.

There are 5 teams in it - Mayo, Donegal, Cork, Kerry and Dublin.  It's as simple as that.  Tyrone, Kildare and maybe Down are next best but a distance behind.  The rest are a country mile away

JCluxton wrote:There are 5 teams in it - Mayo, Donegal, Cork, Kerry and Dublin.  It's as simple as that. 

I fear you've missed the point.  My take on Loyal's original post was that he was trying to identify the most likely 8th quarter finalist.  There have to be more than 5 teams in the quarter finals or, mathematically, they just won't work.

I have listed 8 teams there.  I was not referring to your post at all and have missed no point.  Whats the problem?

Ignoring logistics

I would go for Down - In fact I think this weekend is a major banana skin for Donegal.
Last years Ulster final was even after 30 mins - Donegal pulled away from that point.
In the first 30 mins Down created at least 3 good goal chances-

Down are "streaky" so on their day they can give most teams a good rattle. Clear outsiders but if the catch Donegal they would be favourites for QF berth. If they avoid a drubbing v Donegal and get a reasonable draw in Round 2 I'd rate them for a run.

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 If you want to pick the Q Finalists - Of loyals 7 Tyrone are the only ones who can Draw Leitim so the Eighth team will be whoever draw Leitrim/London in the last round of the Qualifiers - Im backing one from Meath Down or Derry


On paper Mayo, Donegal, Dublin are hot favourites - Kerry next.
Assume Beaten provincial of Leitrim, Kildare, Monaghan and Cork

Assume 4 from  Tyrone,Galway,Meath,Down,Derry
In reality (assuming its not Tyrone who are in Loyals 7) the Eighth team will be

one from Galway/Meath/Down/Derry who draw Leitrim and Im excluding GAlway given their Qualifier form

Laois,Down were the 8th,7th teams last year. In 2011 it was Limerick. I think this year it will be Monaghan or maybe Meath.

To be fair to Loyal, he called it...

Yeah I thought this young Cavan team would be type of team capable of exploiting a good draw. Actually to be fair, Cavan's route to this stage of the competition has been far from straightforward, and I'd suggest they'd be here anyway if enjoying the same paths to the QFs as Mayo, Cork or Dublin.

Some embarrasing observations further back...... 

I called Monaghan and was close enough with Meath  

Good shouts on both Monaghan and Cavan. These sides have improved all year, whereas a couple of bigger names (Kildare/Down) both regressed as the season went on.

Improvement will continue to play a big part from here on in, as no side has yet shown the form that will win them an all ireland.