Mens Flora London Marathon 2009!

Anybody any thoughts on this on Sunday morning?

This is a world class field and it would be no surprise to see the world record been smashed come Sunday evening. In fact, if whatever little bit of rain that is forecast stayed away, then the 13/8 with PaddyPower for a course record could look quite big.

But back to the race itself; well Martin Lel is a worthy favourite in my opinion. After victories in London in 2005, 2007 and 2008, he bids to become the first man to ever win four London Marathons. And to be fair, he is the one to beat even though there are rumours of an injury. If he is going to turn up, then I'm happy to concede that he's 100% fit.

However if there are any chinks in his armour, then there are plenty waiting in the wings to capatilize and the chief among those surely has to be Sammy Wanjiru. His marathon win at last year's Olympics is still etched in my mind, it surely had to be one of the greatest running performances of all time. He demolished a top class field and in doing so, set a new Olympic record and hopes will be high that he can overturn the nine second defecit that separated him and Lel in the last running of this race.

But the Eritrean Zarensey Tadese could be the one to cause the surprise. I've backed him at 12/1 and I now see that this morning PaddyPower have cut him to 8/1. This will be his marathon debut (and he probably could not have picked a better race to start off in) but the fact that he is a double half marathon champion and has run an incredible 58:59 over that distance should help to ease his debut fears. If you want to back anyone for a bit of interest, then Tadese would be my advice. And his fellow country man Yonas Kifle could run a big race too.

Indeed, the wealth of runners does not end there. The silver and bronze medallists from Beijing are also amongst the contenders namely Jaouad Gharib and Tsegaye Kebede. And both of those have massive chances. Throw in the likes of Felix Limo, Abderrahim Goumri and Emmanuel Mutai and you can see what a brilliant race it promises to be. Limo is getting on in years but as a former winner of this race, can't be discounted whilst Goumri and Mutai filled the third and fourth spots in this race last year.

Here is the elite field and their best marathon times:

Martin Lel KEN 2:05:15
Sammy Wanjiru KEN 2:05:24
Abderrahim Goumri MAR 2:05:30
Khalid Khannouchi USA 2:05:38
Felix Limo KEN 2:06:14
Emmanuel Mutai KEN 2:06:15
Tsegaye Kebede ETH 2:06:40
Hendrick Ramaala RSA 2:06:55
Jaouad Gharib MAR 2:07:02
Viktor Röthlin SUI 2:07:23
Yonas Kifle ERI 2:07:34
Tessema Abshiro ETH 2:08:26
Dathan Ritzenhein USA 2:11:06
Zersenay Tadese ERI Debut
Hicham Bellani MAR Debut

And here is the result I am expecting:

1st - Zarensey Tadese
2nd - Sammy Wanjiru
3rd - Yonas Kifle

Anyone think the course record could go?

I've heard good things about Eritrea's finest myself, and you seem to back this up Loyal. Is 8/1 very good value for Tadese then?

Well it is and it isn't. In normal circumstances, you would say 8/1 for a Marathon debutant especially considering the race he has decided to make his baptism of fire in, is bad value. But Tadese is sounding confident, some of his times in the half-marathon are sensational and he has an Olympic medal to his name from Athens too so I think he has a decent chance.

Whoever wins, a classic race is in store. This could go down as one of the all-time great races. Wanjiru has already suggested that he's going for the record so it certainly won't be a place for the faint hearted.

and i thought i was doing well

Course record: 02:05:15 - Martin Lel
Do you think this could go?

World record: 02:03:59 - Haile Gabresaillse

I must stress again that this field contains the elite of the elite, a great race is guaranteed.

9am, Sunday morning, BBC1/BBC2.

How many miles/kilometres is the race?

26 miles 385 yards, Lil.

Do you have any thoughts on who might win the women's race?

Is Svetlana Zakharova playing loyal? Cos then I'll go for her. Are there any Irish women running?

I got the women's results from last year loyal:

1	1	108	» MIKITENKO, IRINA (GER)	W35		2:00:26
2	2	105	» ZAKHAROVA, SVETLANA (RUS)	W35		2:00:26
3	1	106	» WAMI, GETE (ETH)	W30		2:00:27
4	3	103	» PETROVA, LUDMILA (RUS)	W35		2:00:30
5	3	102	» ADERE, BERHANE (ETH)	W30		2:00:32
6	2	107	» KOSGEI, SALINA (KEN)	W30		2:00:33
7	1	109	» AIT SALEM, SOUAD (ALG)	W25		2:01:10
8	4	104	» DITA, CONSTANTINA (ROM)	W35		2:01:52
9	2	115	» PIRTEA, ADRIANA (ROM)	W25		2:01:58
10	5	111	» SKVORTSOVA, SILVIA (RUS)	W30		2:02:33

LilMaighEo wrote:Is Svetlana Zakharova playing loyal? Cos then I'll go for her. Are there any Irish women running?

Yeah she is 28/1! No Irish runners in the elite race, probably a few token runners but none that will be having much of a say in the race - or at least I wouldn't think so.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:

LilMaighEo wrote:Is Svetlana Zakharova playing loyal? Cos then I'll go for her. Are there any Irish women running?

Yeah she is 28/1! No Irish runners in the elite race, probably a few token runners but none that will be having much of a say in the race - or at least I wouldn't think so.

I'll go for her then!

So who are you backing to win ( out of the men and the women ) loyal? I'll just decide now. I know I'm backing Svetlana anyway for the women's. I just have to pick a man.

Tadese in the mens has been backed by me.

Womens a no bet race.

Please everyone note to set their alarm clocks for 8.45am tomorrow morning, the action starts at 9am!

MARTIN LEL OUT - INJURED

JUST BEEN CONFIRMED

That's weird I was just about to pick him - oh well

I see Tadese's odds have now been slashed again to 4-1 as a result. What odds you get him at Loyal, 8-1 or longer?

mid-mon man wrote:I see Tadese's odds have now been slashed again to 4-1 as a result. What odds you get him at Loyal, 8-1 or longer?

Small bit at 12/1 and a bit more at 7/1 but that is all subject to a Rule 4 with Lel withdrawing. Think he was 7/4 when he withdrew so I reckon 35% of my winnings will be taken off me.

I'll try to watch it, but i have to study for my exams. I was studying all today, and i'll have to do the same for tomorrow

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:

mid-mon man wrote:I see Tadese's odds have now been slashed again to 4-1 as a result. What odds you get him at Loyal, 8-1 or longer?

Small bit at 12/1 and a bit more at 7/1 but that is all subject to a Rule 4 with Lel withdrawing. Think he was 7/4 when he withdrew so I reckon 35% of my winnings will be taken off me.

Ah right, is that because they didn't have enough time to make a new market after Lel's withdrawal or something?

Well you kind of have the idea, MMM. Before Lel withdrew, it would have been possible to back every runner and no matter what the result, you would be up money - provided you weighted your stakes right. So what if someone close to Lel knew he wouldn't run? It would be a bit unfair on the bookie. So that is why the Rule 4 is there. There is a new market now but the rule 4 applies to all bets on the old markets.

EstherMayo1951 wrote:I'll try to watch it, but i have to study for my exams. I was studying all today, and i'll have to do the same for tomorrow

What ya learning?

Wanjiru is my bet for the men's.
Svatlana or however ya spell her name is my bet for the women's.

Come on loyal ya have to back a woman for tomorrow....

Martha Komu...........

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Martha Komu...........

Now was that so hard?