AI SFC 2014 - Starting Odds

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Gaa_lover wrote:Jack O'Connor to become the new Kildare manager?

Is this being mooted?  I wouldn't want him, and don't see why he would want it (from a footballing perspective anyway), but I could see Kildare going for it.

Has being mooted alright, Glen Ryan another mentioned maybe Kildare will stay local this time.

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Gaa_lover wrote:Jack O'Connor to become the new Kildare manager?

Is this being mooted?  I wouldn't want him, and don't see why he would want it (from a footballing perspective anyway), but I could see Kildare going for it.

Heard he was being lined up for the Kerry minors.

Quite looking forward to the 2014 championship, very difficult to pick an All Ireland winner.

Armaghgeddon wrote:Quite looking forward to the 2014 championship, very difficult to pick an All Ireland winner.

I'd suggest making a list of the following teams: Dublin, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tyrone & Donegal, and work from there.  

I find it very hard to see the winner coming from anyone outside that group.  Even within that list, there are some who look stronger than others.

Without a fresh thread here's my views on Sunday's club finals:

Ballinderry will have too much for Glenswilly but will need to curb the lines of possession to Murphy.

Vincents will see off Portlaoise - The Laois contenders are a shadow of former sides.

Crokes will overcome Cratloe with a struggle. The mini-break will re-boost Cratloe, a battle here.

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Armaghgeddon wrote:Quite looking forward to the 2014 championship, very difficult to pick an All Ireland winner.

I'd suggest making a list of the following teams: Dublin, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tyrone & Donegal, and work from there.  

I find it very hard to see the winner coming from anyone outside that group.  Even within that list, there are some who look stronger than others.

Would say you could narrow it down further by eliminating Kerry and Tyrone. Never thought i would hear myself say it but think Mayo will do it. The winner will come from them or Dublin, Cork and Donegal being the only other two with a chance

samin12 wrote:

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Armaghgeddon wrote:Quite looking forward to the 2014 championship, very difficult to pick an All Ireland winner.

I'd suggest making a list of the following teams: Dublin, Mayo, Cork, Kerry, Tyrone & Donegal, and work from there.  

I find it very hard to see the winner coming from anyone outside that group.  Even within that list, there are some who look stronger than others.

Would say you could narrow it down further by eliminating Kerry and Tyrone.  Never thought i would hear myself say it but think Mayo will do it.  The winner will come from them or Dublin, Cork and Donegal being the only other two with a chance

Dublin are the clear favourites, and I'd expect them to retain their title.  However, if someone removed them, Tyrone or Kerry could beat any of the other big sides (Cork/Donegal/Mayo).  I'd put those 5 all at a similar level as they each have a lot going for them, but they all have major question marks too.  You could argue that they all roughly have a 10% chance of winning the AI, while Dublin would be c.50%.

If Donegal are in the mood and in the form of 2011/12 they should reach the semi final at least if not i expect the same final four in 2014.

Kerry v Dublin AI final i reckon.

Gooch's injury has had a major impact on Kerry's AI odds, and has also shortened the rest of the big 6.  Cavan's unbeaten start to the year has oddly seen them lengthen, as have most of the division 3&4 teams.  Division 1 side Westmeath are at a massive 400/1 - are they really 10 times less likely to win the AI than Down?

Dublin 6/4

Mayo 4/1

Cork 8/1

Kerry 9/1
Donegal 9/1
Tyrone 9/1

Derry 33/1
Kildare 33/1
Meath 33/1

Down 40/1
Monaghan 40/1

Galway 50/1

Cavan 66/1

Armagh 100/1

Roscommon 150/1
Laois 150/1
Sligo 150/1

Wexford 225/1

Louth 300/1

Westmeath 400/1

Fermanagh 500/1
Longford 500/1

Offaly 1000/1
Limerick 1000/1
Tipperary 1000/1
Wicklow 1000/1
Antrim 1000/1
Clare 1000/1
Waterford 1000/1
Leitrim 1000/1

New York 5000/1
London 5000/1
Carlow 5000/1

I would have had Kerry in pole position to reach the final on there side of the draw,but without copper i would say Mayo will fancy there chances of reaching a third final in a row unless some team comes through the back door and catches them on the hop.Dubs will play Tyrone or Donegal in S/F

champers wrote:I would have had Kerry in pole position to reach the final on there side of the draw,but without copper i would say Mayo will fancy there chances of reaching a third final in a row unless some team comes through the back door and catches them on the hop.Dubs will play Tyrone or Donegal in S/F

I wouldn't rule Cork out at this stage.  They had a lot of retirements, but only Ciaran Sheehan could really be described as a loss.  Cuthbert can be no worse than Counihan, and the seeded Munster draw means that they won't be facing any tough early battles.  Cooper's injury will also facilitate their run.  

I've ruled Kerry out at the start of each of the last 3 years, and will do so again this year.  They weren't good enough last year despite a brilliant first season from Fitzmaurice, and I doubt they will be any better in 2014.  Declan O'Sullivan would need to recapture form which he hasn't shown in a few years, and even then they'll need to unearth a couple more players before the league is through.

Mayo are in do or die mode. I've spoken before on here about the need for a side to make a breakthrough within a fairly small window, otherwise they tend to fade away. Horan has taken Mayo to a semi and two finals, and the heartache has increased each year. They have plateaued, and their window is closing quickly.

Thomas Clarke wrote:
I wouldn't rule Cork out at this stage.  They had a lot of retirements, but only Ciaran Sheehan could really be described as a loss.  Cuthbert can be no worse than Counihan, and the seeded Munster draw means that they won't be facing any tough early battles.  Cooper's injury will also facilitate their run.  

Kerry's goose is now well and truly cooked with the injury to Cooper. Cork have Colm O'Neill to come back
in - he was down to play a club game at the weekend and if remaining injury free would be a big boost. A lot will depend on how Cuthbert and Frank Murphy cope with the terams selection. They have a real chance of making the final if the troops are properly deployed. The loss of Canty will be a help, as he'd passed it on big days in HQ about 3 years ago.

Mayo aren't getting any better either.

Mayo are going to struggle to improve. They are still playing Andy Moran, who has been a shadow of the player that he was pre-injury. They also need a replacement for Alan Dillon. Then you look at their defence, which is good at full strength, but threadbare in terms of replacements. An injury to any of their first six would necessitate Keith Higgins being redeployed there.

That means that Mayo need 3 new forwards to go with Alan Freeman, Kevin McLoughlin and Cillian O'Connor. Adam Gallagher may be one, but they will need a couple of others.

Thomas Clarke wrote:Mayo are going to struggle to improve.  They are still playing Andy Moran, who has been a shadow of the player that he was pre-injury.  They also need a replacement for Alan Dillon.  Then you look at their defence, which is good at full strength, but threadbare in terms of replacements.  An injury to any of their first six would necessitate Keith Higgins being redeployed there.  

That means that Mayo need 3 new forwards to go with Alan Freeman, Kevin McLoughlin and Cillian O'Connor.  Adam Gallagher may be one, but they will need a couple of others.

Still think on there side of the draw they look the best option now that coopers gone, cork might be up and coming but thats about where they are at,at the moment

champers wrote:

Thomas Clarke wrote:Mayo are going to struggle to improve.  They are still playing Andy Moran, who has been a shadow of the player that he was pre-injury.  They also need a replacement for Alan Dillon.  Then you look at their defence, which is good at full strength, but threadbare in terms of replacements.  An injury to any of their first six would necessitate Keith Higgins being redeployed there.  

That means that Mayo need 3 new forwards to go with Alan Freeman, Kevin McLoughlin and Cillian O'Connor.  Adam Gallagher may be one, but they will need a couple of others.

Still think on there side of the draw they look the best option now that coopers gone, cork might be up and coming but thats about where they are at,at the moment

Their side of the draw could have a qtr final against Tyrone/Donegal/Kildare/Kerry/Cork - there's nothing easy in that. Yes, they will avoid Dublin until the final, but they'll have to beat fairly good sides to get there.