AI SFC 2014 - Starting Odds

Well, the early bird catches the worm, so here are the odds with PaddyPower for next year's AI SFC.  Any thoughts on early value?

Dublin 13/8

Mayo 9/2

Kerry 11/2

Cork 6/1

Donegal 10/1

Tyrone 14/1

Derry 30/1

Kildare 33/1
Galway 33/1
Meath 33/1

Down 50/1
Cavan 50/1

Armagh 66/1
Monaghan 66/1

Roscommon 100/1

Wexford 150/1
Westmeath 150/1
Laois 150/1
Sligo 150/1

Louth 250/1
Fermanagh 250/1

Longford 300/1
Offaly 300/1

Limerick 500/1
Tipperary 500/1
London 500/1

Waterford 1000/1
Carlow 1000/1
Leitrim 1000/1
New York 1000/1
Wicklow 1000/1
Antrim 1000/1
Clare 1000/1

Thomas Clarke wrote: Well, the early bird catches the worm, so here are the odds with PaddyPower for next year's AI SFC.  Any thoughts on early value?

It's always the second mouse that gets the cheese though.....

Winner likely to be from the top 6 quoted. Can this Dublin team retain it (likely) = poor value at 13/8.
The trio at 33/1 look the likeliest to give you a bit of value just the same.
17 counties at odds above 100/1. Confirming the idea that it's a competition for the elite.

Stick a €10 in Kildare. Likely to import a new manager and a plethora of top forwards....

I'd agree with that, Boxty.  The 3 sides at 33-1 are unlikely to win an AI, but I'd see all of them as having scope for improvement.  They all showed something in 2013, and I look forward to seeing them all in the league.  They represent a bit of e/w value, or at least a run for your money.

Derry at 30-1 will benefit from a year in division 1 but, talentwise, I fear that they are already close to their ceiling.

The champions will almost certainly come from the top 6 in the betting, with Dublin justly favourites.  Still, no manager has won back-to-back AI since 1990, so Jim Gavin will have history against him.

It's hard to believe that Kerry will be better than they were this year, and I don't see Mayo improving either.  Still, neither were far away, so a bit of luck could get either over the line if they can at least avoid regression.

I think that Cork will improve and could be dark horses, but 6-1 seems short.  9-1 would be fairer and more appealing.

Donegal must be respected as former champs, but even their supporters must fear the after affects of a turbulent summer.

Tyrone at 14-1 are over-priced, and I'd optimistically say that they represent the best early value in the top sides.

Munster v Connacht Leinster v Ulster semi finals next year so i think the final could be Kerry v Dublin next year.

Gaa_lover wrote:Munster v Connacht Leinster v Ulster semi finals next year so i think the final could be Kerry v Dublin next year.

It could be, but it's very hard to see Kerry being as good as they were this year. So many key players are well into their 30s, and several more aren't far behind them.

They'll need to find a few top additions this spring.

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Gaa_lover wrote:Munster v Connacht Leinster v Ulster semi finals next year so i think the final could be Kerry v Dublin next year.

It could be, but it's very hard to see Kerry being as good as they were this year.  So many key players are well into their 30s, and several more aren't far behind them.  

They'll need to find a few top additions this spring.

They play Cork away also I think which is a different dynamic ?

OMAR wrote:

They play Cork away also I think which is a different dynamic ?

Fair point but it depends on what manager Cork appoint.

Gaa_lover wrote:

OMAR wrote:

They play Cork away also I think which is a different dynamic ?

Fair point but it depends on what manager Cork appoint.

Cork underwent a fairly low-key but significant personnel overhaul this year. They introduced a lot of newcomers both in defence and attack, and you'd imagine that those lads will be better for their 2013 experience. Assuming that they get the right man, Cork should be better next year.

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Gaa_lover wrote:

OMAR wrote:

They play Cork away also I think which is a different dynamic ?

Fair point but it depends on what manager Cork appoint.

Cork underwent a fairly low-key but significant personnel overhaul this year.  They introduced a lot of newcomers both in defence and attack, and you'd imagine that those lads will be better for their 2013 experience.  Assuming that they get the right man, Cork should be better next year.

Yes and it needed to be done as they were becoming stale. Cork have won three in row Munster U21 titles they have plenty of talent to choose from and O'Neill may have better luck with injury this year. New managers can sometimes lift a side look at Dublin this year and didn't Mickey Harte win All Ireland in his first year plus a few others?

Gaa_lover wrote: New managers can sometimes lift a side look at Dublin this year and didn't Mickey Harte win All Ireland in his first year plus a few others?

Off the top of my head:

Kernan - 2002
Harte - 2003
O'Connor - 2004
O'Shea - 2007
O'Connor (on his return) - 2009
Gavin - 2013

Gaa_lover wrote: New managers can sometimes lift a side look at Dublin this year and didn't Mickey Harte win All Ireland in his first year plus a few others?

To follow Gaa-lovers point, who's likely to get the Cork job. They're certainly not going outside the county.
Cork are a physically strong outfit, almost Kildare-esque in terms of athletic ability and stamina, yet bereft of the guile, ability and killer ball delivery their neighbours posses.

Historically, Cork footballers have been outside of the city, West Cork being their natural domicile. Clubs like Skibbereen, Castlehaven, Clonakilty and indeed Bantry** have been their orchards. Counihanes' reign has seen moderate success with a bunch of moderate players who gave their all on the day. They've been 5/6  years sniffing around the honey-pot with 1 Sam. A true reflection of their worth IMO.

Outside of all that, what Cork player is an automatic choice on your team of the last 5 years...

"Yerrah"...."I can assure you".... 

** It must be 40 years ago when we were on holiday in West Cork. The Sunday saw us in Bantry, nicely settled for the Munster Final being played in Killarney. When there was "no-show" on RTE about 15.35 I enquired coyly to the Barman what the issue was...

"Fooks sake man, Declans (Barron) been dropped.."....Grand sez I....

can't wait to see the dublin team for the league opener,gavin didn't really move far away from the team that started the year v cork ,just added the ballymun players when they came available

players to watch in the league conghaile hudson carthy darragh nelson and there still a few senior players who will be in the mix,if gavin can freshen it up hard to look past dublin,this squad are on the verge 13/8 looks stingy about 4/1 would be a fair price

dublin v cork league opener below

DUBLIN: Stephen Cluxton; Johnny Cooper, Rory O'Carroll, Kevin O'Brien; Darren Daly, Ger Brennan, Jack McCaffrey (0-02); Michael Darragh Macauley (0-01), Emmet O'Conghaile; Paul Flynn, Paddy Andrews (0-05), Paddy Quinn; Paul Mannion, Diarmuid Connolly (1-02, 1-00 pen), Bernard Brogan (0-06, 0-03f).
Subs used: Philly Ryan (0-01) for Mannion (32 mins), Cian O'Sullivan (0-01) for Macauley (46), Ciaran Reddin for Quinn (54), Darragh Nelson for Daly (63), Shane Carthy for O'Conghaile (67).

What role, if any, do you see for, to name two: Eoghan O'Gara and/or Bryan Cullen?

bronco wrote:can't wait to see the dublin team for the league opener,gavin didn't really move far away from the team that started the year v cork ,just added the ballymun players when they came available

players to watch in the league conghaile hudson carthy darragh nelson and there still a few senior players who will be in the mix,if gavin can freshen it up hard to look past dublin,this squad are on the verge 13/8 looks stingy about 4/1 would be a fair price

dublin v cork league opener below

DUBLIN: Stephen Cluxton; Johnny Cooper, Rory O'Carroll, Kevin O'Brien; Darren Daly, Ger Brennan, Jack McCaffrey (0-02); Michael Darragh Macauley (0-01), Emmet O'Conghaile; Paul Flynn, Paddy Andrews (0-05), Paddy Quinn; Paul Mannion, Diarmuid Connolly (1-02, 1-00 pen), Bernard Brogan (0-06, 0-03f).
Subs used: Philly Ryan (0-01) for Mannion (32 mins), Cian O'Sullivan (0-01) for Macauley (46), Ciaran Reddin for Quinn (54), Darragh Nelson for Daly (63), Shane Carthy for O'Conghaile (67).

A very interesting observation, Bronco. I knew he was consistent all year, but didn't realise it was to that extent. A good post.

Boxtyeater wrote:What role, if any, do you see for, to name two: Eoghan O'Gara and/or Bryan Cullen?

hard to see any role for cullen in 2014 but can't see him walking away with this team on the verge of greatness=to the 70s,as for o gara big role to play as he did on sunday you just can't buy what he brings to the table when the chips are down he delivers,on sunday he made horan change his game plan moving higgins to the corner not bad for a lump

Thomas Clarke wrote:

bronco wrote:can't wait to see the dublin team for the league opener,gavin didn't really move far away from the team that started the year v cork ,just added the ballymun players when they came available

players to watch in the league conghaile hudson carthy darragh nelson and there still a few senior players who will be in the mix,if gavin can freshen it up hard to look past dublin,this squad are on the verge 13/8 looks stingy about 4/1 would be a fair price

dublin v cork league opener below

DUBLIN: Stephen Cluxton; Johnny Cooper, Rory O'Carroll, Kevin O'Brien; Darren Daly, Ger Brennan, Jack McCaffrey (0-02); Michael Darragh Macauley (0-01), Emmet O'Conghaile; Paul Flynn, Paddy Andrews (0-05), Paddy Quinn; Paul Mannion, Diarmuid Connolly (1-02, 1-00 pen), Bernard Brogan (0-06, 0-03f).
Subs used: Philly Ryan (0-01) for Mannion (32 mins), Cian O'Sullivan (0-01) for Macauley (46), Ciaran Reddin for Quinn (54), Darragh Nelson for Daly (63), Shane Carthy for O'Conghaile (67).

A very interesting observation, Bronco.  I knew he was consistent all year, but didn't realise it was to that extent.  A good post.

at the start of the year i thought he was blooding players for the future.just shows you supporters dont know everything:D 

bronco wrote:with this team on the verge of greatness=to the 70s

One note of caution is that Dublin were very fortunate with injuries this year. To play virtually the same side all year is very lucky, but not uncommon among AI winners. Donegal were injury-free in 2012, but the loss of a couple of key men in 2013 completely derailed them. Cork experienced the same when trying to retain their title in 2011, and Tyrone had it is 2004 & 2006.

Dublin have strength in depth, but they don't currently have replacements for Cluxton, MDMA or Brogan. The loss of 1 or 2 of those could be critical.

Thomas Clarke wrote:

bronco wrote:with this team on the verge of greatness=to the 70s

One note of caution is that Dublin were very fortunate with injuries this year.  To play virtually the same side all year is very lucky, but not uncommon among AI winners.  Donegal were injury-free in 2012, but the loss of a couple of key men in 2013 completely derailed them.  Cork experienced the same when trying to retain their title in 2011, and Tyrone had it is 2004 & 2006.

Dublin have strength in depth, but they don't currently have replacements for Cluxton, MDMA or Brogan.  The loss of 1 or 2 of those could be critical.

maybe gavin will be thinking on them lines and will give others a chance to step up,but as you said we were injury free all year till the last 15 mins sunday,gavin used 54 players this year from jan till sept hard to believe

I would think Gavin will introduce some of the minor winning team of 2012 into the side next year. Players like Eric Lownes, Shane Carthy and Cormac Costello. Nicky Devereaux, Ciaran Reddin, Emmet O'Conghaile and Philly Ryan fell out of favour as the year wore on. We might see one or two of them improve and break into the side. Ted Furman from Ballymun definitely deserves another go at intercounty level. I thought in a Ballymun side that contained Alan Hubbard, Philly McMahon, James McCarthy, Jason Whelan (played the League final and hasn't been seen since) and Dean Rock, Furman was the standout man. It's interesting as well how many players have fallen off the map too. Ross O'Carroll, Sean Murray, Craig Dias, Cian Mullins, Paul Hudson a few that I can think of. What has happened to these guys? It would be interesting to see what people closer to the Dublin team think of the players mentioned in this post. For sure, Dublin are turning out top players every year. It always looks more impressive on paper though. What also might be an interesting discussion is what players from the current 20 will lose out and will the likes of Rock, McMenamin, O'Gara, Bastick and Daly break into the side.

Jack O'Connor to become the new Kildare manager?

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:What also might be an interesting discussion is what players from the current 20 will lose out and will the likes of Rock, McMenamin, O'Gara, Bastick and Daly break into the side.

So long as it isn't forced upon you due to injuries to key players, change is very important when trying to retain Sam.

Take Donegal as an example. Jimmy tried to wring a 3rd consecutive year out of almost the same starting 15, and failed to unearth any new players during the league (the only 2 that saw any real gametime were Ross Wherity and Ryan McHugh, but even those 2 were never going to be starting in the championship opener). To believe that effectively the same 15 is good enough 24 or even 12 months on, is to convince yourself that none of your starters have lost form in that period, and that none of the other 20 lads on your panel have improved. It is a nonsense, but is an error that so many top managers fall into year after year.

Gavin will know his key players and they will be untouchable, but there will be several others who will have a fight on their hands to retain their spots. Logic and history would suggest that he won't win another AI without at least 2-3 changes to his starting 15.

Gaa_lover wrote:Jack O'Connor to become the new Kildare manager?

Is this being mooted?  I wouldn't want him, and don't see why he would want it (from a footballing perspective anyway), but I could see Kildare going for it.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:I would think Gavin will introduce some of the minor winning team of 2012 into the side next year. Players like Eric Lownes, Shane Carthy and Cormac Costello. Nicky Devereaux, Ciaran Reddin, Emmet O'Conghaile and Philly Ryan fell out of favour as the year wore on. We might see one or two of them improve and break into the side. Ted Furman from Ballymun definitely deserves another go at intercounty level. I thought in a Ballymun side that contained Alan Hubbard, Philly McMahon, James McCarthy, Jason Whelan (played the League final and hasn't been seen since) and Dean Rock, Furman was the standout man. It's interesting as well how many players have fallen off the map too. Ross O'Carroll, Sean Murray, Craig Dias, Cian Mullins, Paul Hudson a few that I can think of. What has happened to these guys? It would be interesting to see what people closer to the Dublin team think of the players mentioned in this post. For sure, Dublin are turning out top players every year. It always looks more impressive on paper though. What also might be an interesting discussion is what players from the current 20 will lose out and will the likes of Rock, McMenamin, O'Gara, Bastick and Daly break into the side.

Ross O'Carroll, Sean Murray, Craig Dias, Cian Mullins, Paul Hudson


ross went to hurling dias was dropped of the panel as far as i know mullins is still there,and paul hudson was very close to the 26 flying in training,i would expect hudson to get plenty game time in 2014

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:
What also might be an interesting discussion is what players from the current 20 will lose out and will the likes of Rock, McMenamin, O'Gara, Bastick and Daly break into the side.

think dublin see it as being a 20 man game,heard cullen is gone shows the depth of talent if true,can't blame him really who wants to be on the B team great servant for the dubs

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Gaa_lover wrote:Jack O'Connor to become the new Kildare manager?

Is this being mooted?  I wouldn't want him, and don't see why he would want it (from a footballing perspective anyway), but I could see Kildare going for it.

think emmet would make a better job than o connor