Tour De France 2011

Well surprise and disappointment for Irish cycling fans as Daniel Martin is left out of the Garmin-Cervelo Tour De France team. Not a decision I'm shocked by but at the same time I felt his chances of inclusion were high. He is certainly a very punchy rider, and on the steeper slopes, can climb as well as anyone else in his team. A mistake by Garmin in my opinion.

So our Tour hopes will rest on the shoulders of Nicolas Roche. His season has been built around the first three weeks in July, and once again, he is team captain. If he and his team can limit losses in the time trails, then there is a good chance he can finish in the top ten.

There is a good chance the overall General Classification will end up being a two horse between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. Contador looked imperious in the Giro D'italia winning the race by about six minutes. He looks better this year than last. Schleck as per usual takes it easy until Ardennes Classics, and then lies low until the Tour. His form is always patchy coming into July but when the gradients kick up, he likes to come into his own. Big conundrum could be Frank Schleck. Wouldn't surprise me if Frank was able to match Andy, and indeed if he is the one to take the race to Contador. In the Liege Bastogne Liege, Frank was the only rider Gilbert couldn't see off. Basso, with a different perparation this year might have a say too. Forget about the likes of Evans, Leipheimer and Wiggins. They are always found wanting. And Robert Gesink, for so long touted as a possible winner, I'm not convinced.

Here are some riders I expect will win a stage
1. Phillippe Gilbert
2. Nicky Terpstra
3. Ryder Hesjedal
4. Alexandre Vinokourov
5. Edvald Baossan Hagen
6. Fabian Cancellera
7. Mark Cavendish
8. Sylvain Chavanel
9. Alexandr Kolobnev
10. Alessndro Petacchi

Hard to see past a Schlek Contador 2 horse race - To be honest Ive gone beyond sceptical on this subject
- last year when they hit the steep stuff Schlek looked to be in a comfort zone and Contador was struggling but the chain slip and whatever else saw him through after that.

I watched a good bit of the Tour of calafornia on some late night freeview last month and Horner was freewheeling up the hills - Any view on his chances ?
but despite the fact that these guys are putting 50,000 k a year up its amazing how the peaks work in terms of fitness - again one for the sceptics - but that aside its the same rules for everyone and the same flexibility to work around them and after that a magnificent sporting spectacle

Not sure about Chris Horner. The Tour of Calfornia was probably his Tour de France and I'll be surprised if himself and Andreas Kloden aren't here to give Leipheimer every assistance possible. But if Leipheimer was to have a bad day, then Radioshack might change tack. The young Slovenian, Janez Brajkovic could be anothernone for the surprise category in the General Classification.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Well surprise and disappointment for Irish cycling fans as Daniel Martin is left out of the Garmin-Cervelo Tour De France team. Not a decision I'm shocked by but at the same time I felt his chances of inclusion were high. He is certainly a very punchy rider, and on the steeper slopes, can climb as well as anyone else in his team. A mistake by Garmin in my opinion.

So our Tour hopes will rest on the shoulders of Nicolas Roche. His season has been built around the first three weeks in July, and once again, he is team captain. If he and his team can limit losses in the time trails, then there is a good chance he can finish in the top ten.

There is a good chance the overall General Classification will end up being a two horse between Alberto Contador and Andy Schleck. Contador looked imperious in the Giro D'italia winning the race by about six minutes. He looks better this year than last. Schleck as per usual takes it easy until Ardennes Classics, and then lies low until the Tour. His form is always patchy coming into July but when the gradients kick up, he likes to come into his own. Big conundrum could be Frank Schleck. Wouldn't surprise me if Frank was able to match Andy, and indeed if he is the one to take the race to Contador. In the Liege Bastogne Liege, Frank was the only rider Gilbert couldn't see off. Basso, with a different perparation this year might have a say too. Forget about the likes of Evans, Leipheimer and Wiggins. They are always found wanting. And Robert Gesink, for so long touted as a possible winner, I'm not convinced.

Here are some riders I expect will win a stage
1. Phillippe Gilbert
2. Nicky Terpstra
3. Ryder Hesjedal
4. Alexandre Vinokourov
5. Edvald Baossan Hagen
6. Fabian Cancellera
7. Mark Cavendish
8. Sylvain Chavanel
9. Alexandr Kolobnev
10. Alessndro Petacchi

was thinking that myself loyal. Might have a wee dig at that. Can get it at 8-1 in places for him to finish in top ten, will add a bit of extra interest if nothing else

Haven't looked at betting yet but 8/1 is very big. I'd make him a 3/1 shot.

The only ones of the big favourites who are sure do a top ten are Andy and Frank, Contador, Basso and probably Gesink. Maybe Samuel Sanchez. And as we seen last year Frank Schleck crashed out early. But let's say are 3 or 4 places up for grabs.

If Roche can hang onto the leaders every day, he won't be far away.

His biggest problem will be time trails. AG2R have a very weak squad for the team time trial so he'll lose a lot of time there. And Roche himself lost almost three minutes in the Tour de Suisse' time trial a week ago. You're talking five minutes lost in the time trial if he dosen't improve.

But the likes Rodriguez, Leipheimer, Evans, Wiggins, Vinokourov and Kruizeiger, no reason to think he won't be able to mix it with these guys.

Well Loyal, any tips for stage win tomorrow? Must have a few climbs in it as Cavendish 40-1? Watching eurosport there, was following his tour last year. Some unbelievable finishes by him especially in Paris

Stage 1

Yep Sam, Cav is a big price for the opening stage. It's a flat enough day until the final couple of kilometres where the gradient kicks up dramatically. Last 600 metres are very steep. For that reason, many of the favourites in the betting are Classic type riders. Not impossible that Cav could produce the goods, especially as he'll be fresh and out to prove a point, but I think it's unlikely.

Another factor at play here is the Team Time Trial tomorrow. I'm not sure if a lot of teams will want to expend too much energy setting the race up for their rider when a big day lies ahead tomorrow.

Anyway, Phillippe Gilbert is the obvious favourite. He won all before him in the Spring and this is the ideal finish for a rider like him. He is the obvious choice. But there other punchy type riders who'll fancy their chances, e.g. Goss, Vinokourov, Kolobnev, Cunego, Boassan-Hagen even Cadel Evans. It's not one to try and out-sprint you're rivals, more out-drag them and for that reason a lot of the sprinters might struggle. Thor Hushovd is the one sprinter I am always wary of in a finish like this though. Incredibly powerful. Another rider I like is the Dutchman Nicky Terpstra - fancy him to cause a surprise or two somewhere in the next three weeks.

Gilbert is the obvious one but maybe for interest purposes, it might be a good idea to back someone at 20/1 or 33/1 who might cause a shock, Evans, Cunego, Boassan-Hagen or Terpstra for example.

Some silly b*****ks of a spectator just took down about 40 riders 10k from the finish. Standing to close to edge of road and clipped one of the astana team. Caused a major split in the peleton. 31 second gap caused. Contodor caught up behind crash

serious amount of crashes. Impressive win for Gilbert

Dramatic scenes Sam. Contador already a 1m 20s down on yellow.

Big winner was Cadel Evans.

I seen Frank Schleck cross the line in the first group, not sure about Andy.

Need to see the gaps! Drama, Drama, Drama.

Also good win Gilbert.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Dramatic scenes Sam. Contador already a 1m 20s down on yellow.

Big winner was Cadel Evans.

I seen Frank Schleck cross the line in the first group, not sure about Andy.

Need to see the gaps! Drama, Drama, Drama.

Also good win Gilbert.

Exciting stage, and plenty of drama. Evans picked up some time, but he won't be in contention by the end, so nothing major there.

Surprised that Cancellara didn't push a bit harder for the win, although I suppose he will have a huge effort to put in tomorrow in the TTT.

Good result for Evans alright but i would say that Contodor will be content enough that Schlek finished in the same group as him. Any word of Roche? Hopefully not one of the fallers. Certainly a better way to get the tour started than the prologue

Roche finished in the lead group with a time of +0.06seconds. Good riding from the Irishman. He always seems to avoid the crashes in the Tour, very good race reader I guess.

Andy Schleck was brought down in the second crash but that was inside 3km so it's +0.06seconds for him too.

TC is probably right. The advantage Evans has now will probably be long gone by the end of the Tour (although I won't write him off completely in case he proves me wrong).

The big losers - amongst the GC contenders - today were Contador, Sanchez and Kruizeiger.

Good news on Roche, i thought Schlek had finished in same group as Contodor. Obviously wrong. Good lead for Schlek over Contodor, wont be easy for him to pull back. Wonder what price Contodor will be after today

Seemingly they did Sam.

But Schleck crashed within 3km from home so gets the same as the last person in the first group.

Contador crashed outside the 3km so has to make do with his 1m 20seconds.

It's all bit confusing - maybe some of the teams will appeal. You see the 3km rule is all well and good but the first crash group actually lost more time by getting held up by the second crash group, who lost no time.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Seemingly they did Sam.

But Schleck crashed within 3km from home so gets the same as the last person in the first group.

Contador crashed outside the 3km so has to make do with his 1m 20seconds.

It's all bit confusing - maybe some of the teams will appeal. You see the 3km rule is all well and good but the first crash group actually lost more time by getting held up by the second crash group, who lost no time.

Yes, i get you now. I suppose its a good rule in most cases, today was a bit of a freak occurance to be fair. Contodor will be sick though if he gets beat by less than todays margin considering he finished on same time as Schlek today

samin12 wrote:

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Seemingly they did Sam.

But Schleck crashed within 3km from home so gets the same as the last person in the first group.

Contador crashed outside the 3km so has to make do with his 1m 20seconds.

It's all bit confusing - maybe some of the teams will appeal. You see the 3km rule is all well and good but the first crash group actually lost more time by getting held up by the second crash group, who lost no time.

Yes, i get you now. I suppose its a good rule in most cases, today was a bit of a freak occurance to be fair. Contodor will be sick though if he gets beat by less than todays margin considering he finished on same time as Schlek today

Yep I agree there.

Also Schleck's Leopard Trek team is likely to take more time off Contador's Saxobank team in tomorrow's team time trial, which will leave Contador further in arrears.

But the positives to draw from that is that Contador will have to go and attack now, rather than play conservative on the slopes with Schleck, like last year.

Yeah it is an exciting opening to the tour, it will get very interesting when it comes to the mountains if Contodor is a minute or so behind. Will make it more exciting than when he was just keeping an eye on Schlek like last year. What team do you fancy to take tomorrows stage?

samin12 wrote:Yeah it is an exciting opening to the tour, it will get very interesting when it comes to the mountains if Contodor is a minute or so behind. Will make it more exciting than when he was just keeping an eye on Schlek like last year. What team do you fancy to take tomorrows stage?

I am not sure. Team Sky maybe. Although I would expect Leopard-Trek, Garmin-Cervelo and HTC Columbia to fare reasonably well too.

Yeah Team Sky is getting talked up alot(although i was watching skysports news). Cant see any team losing too much time tomorrow. Only 14 mile course and fairly flat, very short for a team time trial

Team sky as big as 7-1 in some places for tomorrow. Schlek and Contodor both well over even money now, 11-8 and 7-5, would be tempted to stick a grand on each, should be buying about £400. Although knowing my luck they would both crash out or be caught with steroids

Nicholas Roche tipped Gilbert to win today's stage in this morning's Indo.

Garmin-Cervelo take the team time trial by four seconds from BMC and Team Sky.

New race leader is The God of Thunder, Thor Hushovd. I see Cadel Evans missed out by just one second.

Also more importantly, Andy and Frank are now 1m 37secs ahead of Alberto Contador. And Cadel Evans is 1m 41secs ahead of him. So a bad start for the Spaniard. Schleck 1-2 already looks on the cards.

Dunno Loyal - early days. At least it happened on Day 1 so they will have ample time and opportunity to hatch some plans and attacks.

Stage 3

Looks like a flat stage all the way into the town of Redon - one for the fast men of peloton. Expect the usual names, Farrar, Petacchi, Boonen, Hushovd and Griepel all to be towards the forefront of the peloton at the end of the stage. But Cavendish stands out - once the Manx Missile is fired, the stage will be all over. Also interesting to note is that high winds are possibility which could cause gaps in the peloton. We shall see....

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Dunno Loyal - early days. At least it happened on Day 1 so they will have ample time and opportunity to hatch some plans and attacks.

Yes early days but even Contador would not have expected to be this far behind this early. One thing's for sure, he'll have to attack as soon as they reach the mountains. None of the tippy-tappy riding like last year.