Championship 2010 - serious analysis only

Munster to start ...

Kerry: Dara may be gone but Mike McCarthy returning to the fold is a big plus. Were very sluggish last year until the QF ( ) and may meet Cork in the Munster semi - wouldn't know what way that will go. If you asked me after the Sligo game what Kerry's chances were I'd have given little. Won't make that mistake here - still the team to beat.

Cork: Have they got the mental strength - probably not if they meet Kerry in Croker. I honestly think their best chance is staying away from their neighbours (outside Munster) right up to and including the final. Second best on form - but beatable.

Tipperary, Limerick and Waterford will give Munster a good rattle. Tipp have Kerry first up and that will be their All Ireland but hard to see an upset. Waterford have to beat Clare before facing Limerick in a semi with the likely prize a final against one of the big 2. Would pick Limerick to come through this scenario and give the final a real lash. Don't expect much from any in the qualifiers - and Limerick may not appear until last 8 - when there should be still a fair bit of quality around.

Connacht

Mayo: Have a very ticky opener against Sligo and there is nothing the Yeats boss would like better than to put one over on Mayo - and its very possible.

Galway: I expect the Joe K factor to deliver a Connacht title. A handy opener followed most likely by the Mayo-Sligo winner shouldn't be beyond them. Expecting a lot from Galway this summer - despite an 'ordinary' League.

Leitrim - straight into semis and then the winners of Roscommon or London. Still think they are short of real quality and the final may be beyond them - but Rossie-Leitrim games are never predictable. However ....

Roscommon: I expect them to build on the U21s success and take Leitrim but no Connacht title - a final appearance will place them in the final qualifier though!

Sligo: The dark horses - can see them tripping Mayo up but not Galway. If this is the case then anyone who takes them lightly in the qualifiers does so at their peril!

Leinster

Dublin: Remain the team to beat. Despite a 'school of thought' that thinks Dublin should go the back door route I can see them make the Leinster Final handily enough - and the carrot will be 6 in a row then. I think if they want to win Leinster they will.

Kildare: On the other side of the draw - the easier side to be honest and should make the Final easily enough IMO. I think a Leinster title is very important to the Lily Whites and this is where their focus will be initially.

Meath: Tricky opener against Offaly and then Laois if they win before they will probably face the Dubs in the semi. I expect the Royals to be on the scenic route again this year.

Wexford: Not expecting a lot from the Yellow Bellies - has the Ryan factor worn off. A lot may depend on whether Mattie plays and how fit he is.

Laois: See no real improvement here.

Wicklow: Surprise factor gone and can't see them having a huge impact.

Louth: May beat Longford but will not beat Kildare so will hit the back door early.

Westmeath: In freefall but change of manager may see some improvement but not enough to make an impact.

Offaly: Could be a surprise package in Leinster - watch out Royals!

Ulster

Tyrone: Reigning champs but lots of stories about all not being well and a lacklustre League campaign ending in relegation feeds the stories. I think they will be a different team come Champo time but have a tricky start v Antrim - a potential shock methinks. Expect to see them in the last 8 whatever route.

Derry: Must be peeved to have drawn Armagh in the prelim. I expect them to win this one and build on it to take Monaghan again and actually win Ulster.

Armagh: Must be peeved too to have drawn Derry in the prelim. I think they will lose to Derry but with a good draw they could still be around when the last 8 is known.

Monaghan: Didn't see anything in the League to excite me but could do damage on the scenic route.

Donegal: Not convinced - lean too heavily on MM. Hard to call the winner v Down but I don't expect to see them in the Ulster final.

Down: Similarly not convinced. Can't see an Ulster final and don't think they are too fond of the backdoor.

Antrim: Dark horses again. A win against Tyrone in QF and anything is possible.

Cavan: GT team but .....

Fermanagh: Also rans.

Well that's my take .... anyone else want to call it as they see it?

Ill be brief enough here,

For LEINSTER,

Kildare, Will win it
Dublin , Narrow final loosers
Laois, Beaten by about 7 against Dublin in the Semi - Final once again dashing my hopes of winning leinster for another year
Wicklow, Beaten by Kildare in the Semi,
rest gone before that stage, Meath beat Offally, Wexford beaten by dublin by about 5 points westmeath will show a brave performance but ultimately Mickos men will beat them i think.
Louth Carlow and Longfort havent a hope.

Verdict: Kildare will narrowly beat Dublin in the final, But could this be a blessing in disguise for the dubs?


For Connaught.

Sligo, Will loose out to Mayo narrowly in Sligo
Galway, will cruise into the Semi Fianal to face Mayo
Roscommon, Should be in the final against either Galway or Mayo
Mayo, Will be unconvincing against Sligo but will beat a Galway team who I fancy very much by about 2 points in Castlebar and will go on to face Roscommon in the final.

Verdict: Mayo handy enough in the end, Galway will be back.


Munster.

Kery or Cork ? take your pick. I think Kerry will do it for a few reasons, They wont fear Cork, They haven won the Munster championship in 2 years now, Mc is back in the fold and i think they have abit left in the tank.
Limerick will give a good show in the final but Kerry to run out winners by about 6 points.

Verdict: Kerry probably prove that bit to strong for the rebels

Ulster.

Very open this year,

I fancy Armagh to take Derry on the first day.

In the quarter Finals i am going for Tyrone Down Cavan and Monaghan aginst Antrim, Fermanagh, Armagh and Donegall respectfully.

In the Semi- Finals I think a Fully Fit Down could cause an upset against Tyrone and I think Cavan are this years surprise Package from ulster and will beat Monaghan

Final of Down and Cavan will go in Downs favour crowning them champions.

Verdict: Down

Overall the provincial winners i think will be Kerry, Kildare, Mayo and Down

Joined in the semi fianls by Cork, Galway, Dublin and Tyrone

Verdict : Kerry to win it again by beating Dublin in the Final depending on draw If they meat before then its Galway for me to play kerry in the Final but same result

Final Verdict: Kerry


Thats my views on it.

Not sure of what way the draw has worked out in Munster and Connacht.

I will be brief.

Leinster. Dublin to beat Kildare in final.

Connacht. Galway

Munster. Cork.

Ulster. Armagh to beat Derry and then Monaghan.

Tyrone to beat Antrim by 3 or 4

Donegal to beat Down

Cavan to beat Fermanagh.

Tyrone to beat Donegal.

Armagh to beat Cavan.

Armagh to win Ulster.

Very optimistic i know, if we can get Ronan Clarke back fit we will give it a good go.

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Tyrone: Reigning champs but lots of stories about all not being well and a lacklustre League campaign ending in relegation feeds the stories.

What stories Jayo?

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Tyrone: Reigning champs but lots of stories about all not being well and a lacklustre League campaign ending in relegation feeds the stories.

What stories Jayo?

Well there are stories going right back to Cav's illness, MHs biog, Cavs subsequent denial of 'mental pressure' etc. There appears to be issues there or maybe its an elaborate Tyrone smokescreen.

GAAGenious wrote:In the Semi- Finals I think a Fully Fit Down could cause an upset against Tyrone and I think Cavan are this years surprise Package from ulster and will beat Monaghan

Welcome GAAGenious - and you will now know why Cavan are the GAATipster team for 2010!!!

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Tyrone: Reigning champs but lots of stories about all not being well and a lacklustre League campaign ending in relegation feeds the stories.

What stories Jayo?

Well there are stories going right back to Cav's illness, MHs biog, Cavs subsequent denial of 'mental pressure' etc. There appears to be issues there or maybe its an elaborate Tyrone smokescreen.

Oh, genuinely thought there was something new that you had heard. Cavanagh was upset by the book, but there was little said in it, and all seems fine now. Ironically, Cavanagh's comments in the last couple of months have suggested that Harte was right about the 'roof caving in'. Cavanagh looks good for a man who had 7 months off - the rest will do him good.

There are always stories with Tyrone, and Kerry for that matter. They make bigger headlines.

Thomas Clarke wrote:There are always stories with Tyrone, and Kerry for that matter. They make bigger headlines.

Thank God us Dubs don't suffer from that stuff .....

Tbh I don't think Tyrone look as cohesive as recent years in terms of unity - that may be wishful thinking though! I also thought Mickey Harte looked a troubled man on the line v Dublin - usually the man has a poker face. Maybe Dooher back will steady things but sometimes when a team loses it can cause disharmony and recrimination - guys thinking other guys shouldn't be in the starting 15 etc - never a problem when you're winning. Then some other guys haven't been performing and are still picked. I know it happens with all teams but the manner of defeat for Tyrone in the semi last year and the fact that they haven't had to deal with that scenario in quite a while might be a factor this C'ship. That all said they may come back even stronger.

(Jayo just drops a load of straws he has been clutching!)

Munster Championship- I don't think i've ever seen munster so competitive with all teams playing to a good standard of football cant see Tipp Clare Limerick or Waterford winning it- Kerry will but more in to Munster this year than other years trying to blood new players...But i believe Cork will win Munster

Connacht Championship- Only 3 teams capable of winning Connacht Galway Sligo and Mayo..Sligo and Mayo should be a cracker with Mayo holding them off and Going on to beat Kernans Galway in the final..A lot of Galway supporters are getting excited by Kernans training regimes and believe their in with a shout this year but it takes a little more than fitness to win Sam..

Ulster Championship...This probably the weakest provience at the moment with no team looking capable of winning Sam ...If Antrim can get back to where they were at last year could give Ulster a rattle..Tyrone have to much mileage on the clock to be contenders...I would say Derry or Monaghan to win Ulster if they can keep their players on the pitch..

Leinster Championship....Wicklow to reach the final...

Semi Finals---Cork v Dublin Mayo v Kerry

Champions 10---The team that beats the Dubs..

galway cork dublin to win their provinces for ulster champions its just to difficult to even guess , for the last eight it will be dublin cork galway kerry tyrone mayo kildare down , the winner will be from tyrone kerry or hot favourites cork but i could be totally wrong

[quote="Jayo Cluxton] "Welcome GAAGenious - and you will now know why Cavan are the GAATipster team for 2010!!! "

I didnt know that before i wrote the blog, Ithink they have a great draw and are capable of pushing on now thanks for the welcome.

Provincial titles to me depends on who wants them, maybe the like of Antrim, Leitrim, Longford and such.Tyrone and Kerry have both benefited via the scenic route and may go that way again.

At national level, Cork appear to be best placed but have issues with Kerry at Croke. Tyrone I reckon could struggle as they have failed to replace the veterans, Dublin on a run could be dangerous but could also do with beating anyone from outside Leinster and the backdoor could suit them.

Galway and Mayo will be about the last 8 so who knows.

But Cork and Kerry should be the main threat and provide a winner.

Hurling, Kilkenny, pushed by Cork.

all this talk about Doohers return is a bit of a false dawn if you ask me - the man is nowhere near being fit for championship football or any football for that matter - he played a game for his club recently but wasn't fit for the game the following week due to the pain he was in from the previous game.

Tyrone look out of sorts and may opt for the scenic route this year - who will win Ulster is anyones guess but Armagh must surely be favourites - for all the good it will do them!!!!!!!

Mayo will probably win Connaught unless big Joe has a few players to bring in who we know nothing about yet.

Kildare could possibly win Leinster then again the ass could fall out of them completely this year something tells me Mc Geeney has taken them as far as he can

If Cork dont win the All ireland this year i'll be very surprised.

[quote="Jayo Cluxton"]Leinster

" Laois: See no real improvement here "

Massive improvements have been made in laois rememebr Armagh and Down the Division 2 finalist only won on last minute kicks of the football it could of easily been the other way around. They are much fitter, stronger and tougher than over the last 10 years dont write them off just yet dont be shocked to see them get into an all ireland quarter final through the back door.

[quote="GAAGenious"]

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Leinster

" Laois: See no real improvement here "

Massive improvements have been made in laois rememebr Armagh and Down the Division 2 finalist only won on last minute kicks of the football it could of easily been the other way around. They are much fitter, stronger and tougher than over the last 10 years dont write them off just yet dont be shocked to see them get into an all ireland quarter final through the back door.

Fair enough GAAGenious - I haven't really seen them in the League and was going on 3-4 record mostly - which, in fairness, is the same as Kildare's!

Kerry
Kennelly, Walsh, O'Mahony, O'Se and Murphy are all a big loss but in the footballing stronghold that is Kerry, there will surely be a few readily replaceable footballers waiting in the wings to take their chance. Last failed to reach an All-Ireland semi-final in 1999, last failed to reach an All-Ireland final in 2003, and since 2004 they've won four All-Irelands! This is one of the greatest teams of all time led in attack by probably the greatest player of all time so another date in Croke Park surely awaits this September, no matter what their chosen route turns out to be.

Cork
Were it not for having an inferiority complex when faced with the might of their near neighbours in Croker, they'd probably be multiple All-Ireland winners by now. Still 2010 promises to be something different for this Cork team after their impressive League campaign, has the time come for them to finally shed their bridesmaid tag? If they are going to win an All-Ireland the hard way, then beating Kerry in Croke Park is the key. Alternatively, someone may get their before them, but thats unlikely so the Kerry hoodoo has to be banished once and for all in 2010. Sadly, there's been nothing to suggest it won't be another case of deja vu and until I see it, I refuse to believe.

Tyrone
After strolling to an easy win in the Ulster Championship, Total Tyrone now enter the 2010 race for the Anglo Celt Cup with plenty of doubts hanging over them following on from their League exploits. The saying "It's only the League" can be over-rated at times but I'm happy to give Tyrone the benefit of the doubt and assume that they will come back just as good as two years ago to provide the Munster duo of Cork and Kerry with their sternest test. There's no questioning their efficacy and applicability on the big day, but the greatest concern for the Tyrone supporter is surely their failure to overcome the athletic and robust teams such as Cork, Down and Meath in recent years. Remedy that and there's little in the way of Tyrone and a fourth Sam.

Three Horse Race
Sometimes people like to look past the obvious in the hope that they can predict the unpredictable. No need for that here though as this All-Ireland is effectively between three teams right now, Kerry, Cork and Tyrone. Each with their own little agenda to overcome and finally put the doubters back in their place, Kerry still need to beat Tyrone to prove they really are the greatest, Cork continue to come up short when faced with the Kingdom in Croker and Tyrone remain vulnerable to physical sides such as the mighty Rebels. That aside, you have to ask yourself what teams are going to even beat one of these three, bar each other? That in itself is hard to envisage but for any of the other twenty nine counties, they'll probably have to beat two of the three to go all the way, and thats not going to happen. Nevertheless, someone has to be fourth best..........

Dublin
So here we go again. There's something different about this Dublin team! Do I recall hearing that line before? In any case, by virtue of their five Leinsters and League performances in 2010, Dublin probably shade the much heralded fourth best tag. But can they break into the top three and realistically launch a proper challenge for Sam. Probably not. But there's no reason why their end of season goal can't be to reach an All-Ireland semi final and possibly even beat one of the top three and end the August Bank Holiday weekend hoodoo. As for the early part of the season, a sixth Leinster must be on the cards and rumours of a possible throwing of the Delaney Cup are exaggerated. After that, one can only doubt their perforated defence, new look midfield and an attack that is greatly over-reliant on the two stars of this team, the Brogans.

Derry
The great enigma of recent times. How can a team with such talent always end every season so far from winning an All-Ireland? 2009 was a disaster from May onwards, the aftermath of the first Monaghan match, stories of in-fighing in club games; broken jaws and teams getting kicked out, Paddy Bradley on the county panel, off it, and back on it, and then most significantly the annihaltion by Tyrone and the heavy beating from Donegal in the qualifiers. Season to forget but unfortunetely, their League campagin has done little to ease the memories and now, for once Derry enter the championship as outsiders. Possible blessing in disguise? Well you never know, because when I see a team with James Kielt, Gerard O'Kane, Paddy Bradley and Eoin Bradley, I expect that it will challenge at least for Ulster honours. Lets give them one last chance, and say that 2010 will be a good year for Derry.

Meath
2009 thought many things but one lesson learned by GAA followes was that the Royals mean business. Few, if any can match the arrogance of the current Meath footballers, there's an underlying belief in the county that they've some God-given right to be listed alongside the best. And that arrogance is what sets them apart from the rest of the pretenders. If in the unlikely, anyone is going to take out two of the top three, then Meath have to be the favourites to do it. Reputations mean little to us because as far as we're are concerned, our reputation is the biggest. Anyway, thats all well and good saying that but do Meath have what it takes to even win Leinster? Well, they couldn't win it in any of the last five years and there's not a lot different this year so Dublin have to be red hot favourites to beat them again. Its nicely set up for a showdown with those Dubs in the semi-final, a game that has the potential to make or break Meath's efforts over the last 2-3 years.

Armagh
Are Armagh about to put themselves back on the map? Minor champions 2009 and Division 2 champions 2010 would hardly sway you from that belief. Themselves and Derry are heading the pack as it closes in on Tyrone in Ulster but unfortunetely, for one of those teams, they'll be in the draw for the qualifiers before the championship's even kicked into gear. And after what I've said about Derry, I'd have to favour Armagh to end up in that draw. But that game is no season-ender for either team as I would still be inclined to predict a reasonably long summer for the losers.

The fourth semi-finalist
Providing the draw allows it, and I think it will (Leinster vs Munster, Ulster vs Connacht semis), I think one of Dublin, Derry, Meath and Armagh will join the leading trio in the semi-finals. After that, there's a few teams who will have hopes of making an impact in the championship, Mayo, Galway, Kildare, Down and Donegal but I suspect a number of them will flatter to decieve. The team who may completely slip in under the radar is Wexford. After the injustice which kept them out of the League final, there's still plenty to be optimistic about Slaneyside/Barrowside! (?) and a repeat of 2008 may not be all that impossible. Its probable they'll give a number of teams a lot to think about in Leinster and with Matty back, may even cause the shock of the provincials by ending any six in a row thoughts in July!

Good analysis Loyal. I would agree with 99% of it, although i do think we will pip Derry.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote: Its nicely set up for a showdown with those Dubs in the semi-final, a game that has the potential to make or break Meath's efforts over the last 2-3 years.


Its probable they'll give a number of teams a lot to think about in Leinster and with Matty back, may even cause the shock of the provincials by ending any six in a row thoughts in July!

Nice analysis but just 2 points id like to make one on the dublin semi final, firstly meath will be lucky to get out of portlaois alive against offally but they probably will but being completely honest i think laois would have yee, and handy at that, however Meath are more likely to be back in croke park in august but i dont think its your year to even sneek it, i would reckon the 2 connaught teams in Mayo and Galway will be in the quarters with Galway being the team to beat your top 3 teams if thye can get kerry before the final.

Matty by the way prob wont be back from what i have heard maybe im wrong? Wouldnt fancy them either they will be beaten by dublin in the quarter and i think the run is too long for them and as i said in the previous post i would reckon tyrone, armagh derry, galway, cork, laois, meath, kildare will all be in the qualifiers they arnt good enough...

Its not hard to see why many think that Meath are greatly over-estimated, they rode their luck in 2009 a year on from horror defeates to Wexford and Limerick, and that was ironically enough after reaching another All-Ireland semi-final.

But still, Offaly and Laois are well within Meath's compass! Unless Laois have unearthed a few stars and are keeping them hidden until the Summer, then I don't think they will be beating any Meath teams "handy".

As for Mayo and Galway, yes one will reach the Quarter Final but only because one Connaught team is gauranteed a spot there every year! Like the last three years, the Connaught champions will be the draw everyone wants at that stage of the competition. I'll be quietly surprised if two or more from that province were to reach the last eight and if any were to make a semi-final. Joe Kernan has won nothing with his new team yet yet the expectation level is completely out of proportion with Galway's realistic goal for the Summer - win Connaught and maybe end their atricious record against teams not from that province. A win over Waterford/Fermanagh/Longford would suffice, never mind them challenging the top three! Mayo are a nice team but they ain't ever going to win anything! When faced with anything of any real substance (includes my seven teams above), they don't want to know about it.

Loais do have a couple of surprises up there sleeves and fair enough 'handy' was abit of an over statement... Laois just have the edge over meath i think and i would have them 3rd in leinster dublin, kildare, laois and meath respectively...

In terms of mayo lets get it out now there muck, o mahony cant pick a team never mind pick any players outside his political constituency but thats a personal feeling. I know my profile says laois but im Loais/Mayo...

The thing is about mayo thye are similar to meath they can kind of sneak up on you and all of a sudden there in a semi - final of the all - ireland.. Galway is interesting and i have probably just jumped on the bandwagon in saying they will give it a lash i dont think they will get a connaught title this year but a quarter final is realistic i believe...

either way it is interesting enough and im sure right through the summer youll be quoting and slating me left right and centre

Yeah fair enough assessment there - though I think ye are a little unkind to Wexford in your Leinster rankings.