Gold Cup 2010

For me its a two horse race, Denman and Kauto Star.

At the moment you would have to fancy Kauto. In my opinion Denman was not totally at itself for the gold cup last year yet was still not too far away in second, i think Denman is open to vast improvement.

I have backed Kauto the past three years being right twice so i am sticking with Kauto.

Between the two of them for sure Samin10.

Kauto Star, the cruiser versus Denman, the galloper. Two horses with two completely different styles but two of the best that I've ever seen.

Denman, the galloper, is naturally better on softer ground. That way he can outjump and outstay his rivals. He jumps so well in bad conditions and he just squeezes the life out of his opposition. Pounds them into submission.

Kauto Star, the cruiser, is better on better ground. He just travels and jumps his way into a race and nothing can match his speed at the end. His turn of foot is that of a good flat horse.

So the ground on the day will probably end up being the decider for me.....

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Between the two of them for sure Samin10.

Kauto Star, the cruiser versus Denman, the galloper. Two horses with two completely different styles but two of the best that I've ever seen.

Denman, the galloper, is naturally better on softer ground. That way he can outjump and outstay his rivals. He jumps so well in bad conditions and he just squeezes the life out of his opposition. Pounds them into submission.

Kauto Star, the cruiser, is better on better ground. He just travels and jumps his way into a race and nothing can match his speed at the end. His turn of foot is that of a good flat horse.

So the ground on the day will probably end up being the decider for me.....

i would agree with everything you said, that last race Denman one against the other Nicholls horse (cant remember its name) was unbelievable, he looked to be struggling with two fences to go but he must have gained about two lengths at each fence (as he did on kauto in 2008 gold cup). The jumping was unbelievable

Can they not find any more than 2 horses to run in it? I the field needs adding to I'll provide a few cattle to make it interesting.

What A Friend, the subsequent winner of the Grade One Lexus Chase at Leopardstown! His win after Denman gave him twenty-six pounds and a four length beating confirmed how far he and Kauto Star are ahead of the rest. Which is why there are only two serious contenders for this race. In a normal year, What A Friend, Imperial Commander, Joncol, Cooldine and Carruthers would actually be serious challengers for the Blue Riband but this year when we've got two the greatest steeplechasers since Arkle, Mill House and Flyingbolt in the sixties, they are fighting it out for third place. And its only due to a few figures complied by some clown at Timeform back then that those three horses are supposedly so far clear. In my opinion, Kauto Star is better than Arkle.

I'd say the best value would be trying to pick an outsider to finish 3rd.

clash-of-da-ash wrote:I'd say the best value would be trying to pick an outsider to finish 3rd.

True Clash. However, what is likely to happen is that there will be two races within the one race - if you get me. Race One between Kauto Star and Denman and then the others racing for third. But this presents a new situation. Do the trainers and jockeys of the other horses simply ignore the big two and go for prize money themselves? Or do they race them?

For example, Imperial Commander in a normal year would probably be favourite for this race. But his run style is one where he likes to be prominent so does he try and match strides with Denman, and risk everything (as Denman could gallop him into the ground) or does he ignore Denman and run his own race for third?

I'd be confident that if Kauto Star and Denman weren't in the race, Imperial Commander would win. But does that mean I think he will come third? No! In fact Paddy Brennan and Nigel Twiston Davies will be chasing first prize and that will will probably cost them third prize.

What would the odds be on a reverse forecast for Denman and Kauto? Surely a large reverse forecast would be the bet.

samin10 wrote:What would the odds be on a reverse forecast for Denman and Kauto? Surely a large reverse forecast would be the bet.

PaddyPower had odds a while ago:

Kauto Star/Denman - 7/2
Denman/KautoStar - 4/1

Dutching them (backing both to win the same amount) works out at 26/19 or a little under 11/8 if you want to be conventional about it.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:

samin10 wrote:What would the odds be on a reverse forecast for Denman and Kauto? Surely a large reverse forecast would be the bet.

PaddyPower had odds a while ago:

Kauto Star/Denman - 7/2
Denman/KautoStar - 4/1

Dutching them (backing both to win the same amount) works out at 26/19 or a little under 11/8 if you want to be conventional about it.

cheers for that loyal, i think thats the bet for me, unless the ground comes up soft in which case i will go for straight forecast Denman and kauto.