Tour De France 2011

Looks like it's all over for Bradley Wiggins.

And Chris Horner dosen't look in great shape either.

first failed dope test reported - anyone surprised????????

bocerty wrote:first failed dope test reported - anyone surprised????????

That it took so long??? Then yes.

More craziness yesterday when an official car (possibly driven by Di's driver) ploughed into a couple of cyclists resulting in Hogengaard or something (Dutch lad - Loyal will know name) getting the ar se ripped off him with barbed wire. Poor lad finished the stage with a thigh that looked like it was hanging in a butchers winda!

bocerty wrote:first failed dope test reported - anyone surprised????????

Thats how the term 'dope peddler' came about.

Certainly not short of incidents this year - Contador seems to be spending more time getting back on his bike than cycling it -

Very serious looking crash for Vinohourov - came out the wrong side of an argument with a Norway spruce
and most Bizzare of all was the crash with the breakaway group on Sunday - It was the first breakaway to date that did real damage on GC and a TV car swerves and cleans out Flecha who in turn took out Hoogerland - Looked very serious at the time as a barbed wird fence broke his fall-though seems he got away with a few cuts to his arm.

Nicely poised now - Big Day on Thursday - Col de Tourmalet and Luz Arididen
Predict that Evans will flatter and maybe again on Saturday on Plateau de Bille but will get eaten up by Schlek and Contador on Thursday week on the big 3 climb day in the Alpes

I agree Omar. But Evans has surprised in the first week - on the hilly climbs. Steep slopes are just around the corner and he'll need to deliver on his early form to live with the Schlecks and Contador. Basso is still hanging on in there, and Kloden is Radioshack's last card.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:I agree Omar. But Evans has surprised in the first week - on the hilly climbs. Steep slopes are just around the corner and he'll need to deliver on his early form to live with the Schlecks and Contador. Basso is still hanging on in there, and Kloden is Radioshack's last card.

He impressed last year too - Can't remember which climb in the Pyrennes but in one of the earlier mountain stages
he burned Contador with Andy Schlek just hanging on his wheel - but once they hit the Multi climb stages in the Alpes he faded

Cavendish beaten in a sprint finish. And by his old team-mate, Andre Griepel. Hard to believe.

Don't get to see any of this during weekdays - but the TG4 half hour slot at 11.00ish gives a good although brief flavour of what has happended during the day - and I will shamefully admit the fact that it is in English does help a lot.
But one major major criticism - which was very evident last night - If it was a horse race or any other damned sport they would show a replay of the finish. Legget couldn't keep up with it "Cavendish is too far back - and there goes cavendish and then -- Griebel takes it - Surely the editor could have squeezed in a 30 second replay if only during the closing credits

Well Omar - very interesting stage yesterday.

A number of things confirmed:
1) Contador is not at his best, probably feeling the effects of his Giro d'Italia win.
2) The Schleck brothers are in very good form, Frank should inherit the yellow jersey on Saturday.
3) Basso looks good.
4) Evans has so far hung in there. But if the Schlecks start launching the sudden accelerations from a long ways out on Saturday's stage, Evans could yet be in trouble.
5) Andy (definitely) and Frank (maybe) already have enough time on Contador, Basso and Cunego to stay ahead of them come the time trial. Just need to put another couple of minutes into Evans.
6) Roche rode well despite being dropped on yesterday's climb. Up to tenth and well capable of staying there.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:
A number of things confirmed:
1) Contador is not at his best, probably feeling the effects of his Giro d'Italia win.

Nothing a good plate of beef wouldn't cure....

Great stage yesterday alright
Contador struggled when the pressure came on - Although the same thing happended last year and then his form improved as they moved into the Alps.
however its vey difficult to see him clawing it back from here - Even if he was in top form - he needs to gain 2 minutes plus - even if he has the strength to break clear surely one of the schleks or basso can follow. ie he might be able to drop one challenger but not all of them

Evans as he did last year impresses in the early climbing stages - but I still feel he will get found out next Thursday if not before then.

Great stuff from Roche - he is just a shade off the top tier.

The schleks were able to double team on attacks and dummy attacks yesterday which eventually wore contador down leaving Frank able to break clear. This is the extra advantage they have over the rest of the top five and something that Andy missed last year once Frank retired. Hard to see past them at this point with Andy the favourite
but its not impossible to see a scenario where if andy loses time in the Alps especially teh back to back over Galibier - Frank may be let loose and who knows from there.

Tomorrows stage will tell a lot more Contador will want to have a go at the time gap before they leave the pyrennes whilst I imagine the Schleks will want to shake off vockler and test Contador again.Also big motivation for the two Italians to wear yellow when the tour crosses into Italy early next week.

It's down to seven riders in my opinion: F. Schleck, Evans, A. Schleck, Cunego, Basso, Contador and Sanchez.

Contador to me looks in big trouble. Whatever about him hanging on in there on Saturday and the Alps next week, I can't see him making up the minutes in the mountains.

If standings and time gaps remained the same between now and the time trial, Evans would wear the maillot jeune down the Champs Elysees. For that reason, he's just going to try and limit his losses. But the instant acceleration from the pure climbers might be his undoing, particularly if they put the hammer down early on in the climb. He hasnt the punch the others have on the steep slopes.

I think Frank is stronger than Andy. No doubt the presence of the other improves both but yesterday the attacks went Frank-Andy-Frank-Frank-Frank before elder Schleck eventually got clear. Again be interesting to see the order of the strikes on Saturday. Leopard also have Fugslang, who I think is the best domestique amongst all the contender's domestiques.

Basso is a brilliant climber and looks in-form. It'll be hard to shed him, and he might even try and go himself. Also Basso and Evans/Cunego might work together to counteract the Schleck attacks. Basso also has a good domestique in Symzd.

Cunego, when he won the Giro in 2004, was a touted as a future Tour winner. He's very good on the climbs. I don't think he's got enough to win but will be hard to drop. Same goes for the Olympic Road Race champion, Sanchez. Ultimately, the time trial will be his undoing. Whatever advantage he has going into it will be long gone by the end of it.

Of the seven, I see four potential winners: Basso, Evans, A. Schleck and F. Schleck.

Every chance Roche can round out the top eight too.

sadly Roche not able for intensity of the second climb on Satuday
I thought we would be wiser after Saturadays stage and that with the double climb a few of the pretenders would ge dropped - What did we learn ?
Andy attacked more than Frank but neither able to break free
Contador looked more stlyeish out of saddle that on Thursday and well able to hold the wheel - but then again he needs to gain.
Evans still strong - I still would bet on him falling back next thursday but Im not so sure now.
Contador now looks as comfortable as the contenders but it nees something special to spring out 2 mins
Sanchez the only one that has has been able to break free - what wil happen if his time gap narrows
Voeckler ? I can't work out - actaulaly looked like he wanted to attack yesterday in a group that included all the "top five" still punching way above his weight 0 but we have been saying this for a week and he is still there ??

Haven't seen any of todays action but surprisngly seems to have been a bit of movement on the leaderboard.
Good day for Evans with Contador also picking up some time - Not such a good day at the office for Andy Schlek

Some healthy time gains for Sanchez, Contador and Evans. Bad day for Andy Schleck and Ivan Basso, but the yellow jersey and Frank Schleck managed to limit their losses. Another tricky descent today. So the same GC men might try and escape towards the summit.

All this will leave Andy very wound up - can definitely see him exploding into life on Thursday to try and split the GC contenders, even if it is at the expense of his brother.

Contador is riding into form though, and tactically, he is going to get it spot on. Work with Evans on yesterday's stage (and possibly todays) to get time on Andy. Then let Andy do the work on Thursday to get rid of Evans, and Contador can just follow the attacks.

If Frank and Contador could get clear with Andy on one of the climbs this week, Frank might just have enough to hold on in the time trial.

Saw a bit this last night - Andy got dropped on a CAT 2 climb by the Contador and Evans breakaway - then fell off the back of the Frank//Vockeler group over the top and on the descent. So don't know if he is starting to break or if he just had a bad day.

Contador has now reduced the gap to the Schlelks to something he can manage through a combination of the TT plus picking up 30 odd seconds on one of the Galbier climbs.

his form is on a similar trend to last year
He has gone from struggling in LuZ ardiden to comfortable on Saturday to attacker yesterday.
Evans still looking very comfortable but my gut feeling is he will fold on Thursday as will Voeckler.
So I'll call it between three and in the followng order Contador, Frank, Andy - Though discounting Evans is not something I would stake too much money on.

Tomorrow will tell more.

Voeckler
A Schleck +0.15
F Schleck +1.08
Evans +1.12

The rest are out of it with no chance of a podium unless two of the above have a very bad day today or in the time trial.

Yesterday's stage to Galiber was the best yet. Tactics by Leopard were executed to perfection, and Andy Schleck rode a great ride. But will he feel the effects today?

Evans did very well dragging the rest of the GC men up the final climb. It was a heroic performance in defeat.

Voeckler still has yellow but only just. Can see one of the Schlecks taking it off his back today.

And finally Frank Schleck had the easiest passage up the climb yesterday and could be the one to go for it today with Andy covering Evans.

The times could be very close between the Schlecks and Evans after today with only the time trial remaining. Even Voeckler is an unknown in that sphere. Today's climb will have fireworks - and Frank may have a go - but I think the destination of the yellow jersey will be decided on Saturday.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote: And finally Frank Schleck had the easiest passage up the climb yesterday and could be the one to go for it today with Andy covering Evans.

Loyal, do you think that Andy's 57 seconds over Evans would be enough for him to claim overall victory after the TT? If not, I'd guess that Andy would be the more likely of the brorthers to push forward again, instead of just sitting with Evans. I'm saying this as surely they would rather secure a 1st and 3rd place, than run the risk of Evans eating up the 57 seconds and finishing ahead of them both on the podium?

Speaking as a less diligent cycling fan, I'm concerned to see Voeckler still in yellow. Has this late-career improvement been coming for a while, or is it viewed as suspicious?

Thomas Clarke wrote:

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote: And finally Frank Schleck had the easiest passage up the climb yesterday and could be the one to go for it today with Andy covering Evans.

Loyal, do you think that Andy's 57 seconds over Evans would be enough for him to claim overall victory after the TT? If not, I'd guess that Andy would be the more likely of the brorthers to push forward again, instead of just sitting with Evans. I'm saying this as surely they would rather secure a 1st and 3rd place, than run the risk of Evans eating up the 57 seconds and finishing ahead of them both on the podium?

Speaking as a less diligent cycling fan, I'm concerned to see Voeckler still in yellow. Has this late-career improvement been coming for a while, or is it viewed as suspicious?

I would say 57 seconds - or a minute - is at the point where it really could go either way. So I would agree, Andy needs more time. But it will be hard for him to attack again after a hard ride for all 60km yesterday. He lost a minute or so in the last 2km so it did look as if he was suffering. Frank had an easier ride - following the wheels of Contador and then Evans. I would not rule out Frank winning it outright either but only if he was to have a very good ride today.

I would be suspicious of Voeckler. Remarkable improvement indeed. Let's not forget while the GC men were taking it easy in the first week, Voeckler was in breakaways riding very hard. Come the Pyrennes, he was still able to close down the attacks of Schleck and Basso and at times, looked capable of attacking them himself. Come the Alps, he's still climbing better than Sanchez, Contador, Cunego. Remarkable for a guy like Voeckler who has not shown any form like this in the past.

Schlecks made the podium alright but neither on the step they wanted.

Congratulations to Cadel Evans. I'd have preferred to see a Schleck win it but you can't complain about Evans.

All round very exciting Tour. Three weeks of top class sport for sure.

Fair play to Evans but wish they would race on the last day instead of this procession into the Champs Elysees. Mind you I have to admit I was glad of the processional stuff back in '87 when CJ won the Tour ....

Would have liked to see Andy Schlek win it especially after a very brave and early attack on Thursday.
But with the benefit of hindsight the key moment was also Thursday when Evans decided to reduce Andy Schleks
lead on the ascent of Galibier. Contador had cracked at that stage and Frank was trying to control the pace in a group where Evans had no team mate.
Evans had no option but to drive the group himself and he had to chase himself for well over 10k, which was when he ensured that Schleks margin was managable.

I realise it suited Roche in 87 Looking back over the entire race it does seem a little unfair that the Time trial ends up having such a huge impact on the overall result. There are about a dozen days where there is unlikley to be any action for the GC contenders and the 5-6 days of Cat one or HC climbs where they are killing themselves to scrap for seconds and then when the dust settles from 4-5days including 2 brutal days in the alps it all comes down to a time trial where a gain of 2-3 minutes can be picked up inside an hour.

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Fair play to Evans but wish they would race on the last day instead of this procession into the Champs Elysees. Mind you I have to admit I was glad of the processional stuff back in '87 when CJ won the Tour ....

Twas a handy one for him all right especially seeing as he was only in Paris to pick up a few Charvet shirts.