Qualifiers round 3

Verdicts?

We're going to get beaten out the gate..

Limerick vs Waterford (Gaelic Grounds)

Tyrone vs Armagh / Wicklow (Healy Park)

Antrim vs Down (Casement Park)

Meath vs Kildare (Pairc Tailteann)

First thing I'll say is what unimaginative pairings this draw has produced. Provided Armagh overcome Wicklow, all games will be in-province.

It's a nice draw for Limerick and Waterford. Both will have to fancy their chances. Maybe Waterford to edge it.

I think Tyrone will be happy with the draw, despite the possibility of facing neighbours Armagh. I'd take them to beat whoever comes through.

Antrim in Antrim is a tricky one for Down. The possibility of a shock is on the cards there. But I'm going to give the benefit of the doubt to Down and tip them to keep on improving.

Hard draw for Meath, who's luck finally ran out in the qualifiers. In our favour is the home draw, and Kildare have already beaten us twice and might under-estimate us. But I'd favour Kildare by nine or ten points to be honest.

As for the Round 4 qualifiers. Wexford will be happy to get Limerick or Waterford. A quarter-final for any of those teams will be a fantastic achievement.

The Armagh / Wicklow draw suits Mayo and Roscommon as the losers of the Connacht final will have an extra week to prepare. But when all games are played, I suspect it'll be Tyrone in the Quarter-Finals.

Antrim or Down versus Cork raises the prospect of a repeat of the All-Ireland Final. And I wouldn't be confident of calling that.

Disaster for Donegal or Derry as the losers will have to play Meath or Kildare, who'll be after having two big wins in successive weeks. I know neither Derry or Donegal will be looking past next Sunday but it really is a game neither team can afford to lose.

Final 8.....Hmmmm....Maybe.....Dublin, Kerry, Roscommon, Derry, Wexford, Tyrone, Cork, Kildare.

From a Down perspective.....the worst thing about knowing that we will face Cork if we beat Antrim could be an issue in maintaining focus in the team. Even I admit...I immediately thought about the prospect of Cork before even considering Antrim.

Bluearmy is ever the optimist about Down football....personally I would love to have another crack at Cork. Ok it would have been better to get easier draws in the qualifiers and maybe take on the big guns in the latter stages but them's the breaks.

Antrim are a side always capable of an upset. They gave us a good game in the McKenna cup but in Championship intensity football Down will certainly have the upper hand. Home advantage is a big bonus for Antrim but Casement is a pretty quick wee trip up the carriageway for Down so hopefully it won't be a massive factor. If Down play the same sort of football they played in Casement last year in the opening stages of the Ulster semi final I cannot see anything but a Down win. They are a superior outfit.

However, Antrim have an incentive, they are playing the All-Ireland finalists and will be determined to get a famous win. They have proven capable to give better teams real scares and Down have a tendency to panic. The key will be to get Down nervous......Down are a team who are very unpredictable when nerves set in, particularly around the full back line. The longer Antrim keep the pace, the more their confidence will grow while Down are liable to stutter and hesitate when nervous. Down must be careful not to get sidetracked by ideas of facing Cork ....my tactic would be to hold possession in the early stages, play the handpassing game and work the ball around . If Down are allowed to dictate the pace of this game via a superior amount of possession they will chip away gradually at the scoreboard. I would fully expect them to up their gear in the second half....play a bit more directly with the forwards going a full speed. Again, if Antrim allow Down to dictate this pace the Down attack will overpower them.
Another crucial area will be discipline in the tackle...it would be unacceptable if Down allow Antrim to establish themselves in the game via free kicks.

Antrim must NOT be underestimated in the same way that Clare were and Leitrim were (in the first half at least). They are, in my opinion, a step up. They are a very capable side on their day. I just hope Down are shrewd enough not to let it be Antrim's day.

According to Pat Spillane, Kildare have conceded the following totals in their second halves this season:

0-1 vs Wicklow
0-3 vs Meath
0-4 vs Laois
0-5 vs Dublin

So either Meath blaze a trail in the first half and hope to go 'in' around a dozen points up thanks to some spectacular shooting from Stephen Bray and Brian Farrell as well as brace of goals from Cian Ward. And then two or three second half points would probably be enough to hold onto a fastly diminishing lead.

Or, we play within themselves in the first-half. Perhaps just tip along at Kildare's pace and hope we are at worst level with them. And then play a frighteningly good second thirty-five and hope that's enough.

Limerick to make the quarters, ditto Tyrone, and Cork who will beat Down, and the last one is difficult.

Derry have no Bradleys maybe in ulster so could lose and then play Kildare. Hard one to call that.

Antrim with a full squad could indeed shock Down but not without our main players who like me, are both crocked.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Limerick vs Waterford (Gaelic Grounds)

Tyrone vs Armagh / Wicklow (Healy Park)

Antrim vs Down (Casement Park)

Meath vs Kildare (Pairc Tailteann)

Doesn't matter who wins between the Munster also-rans prob Limerick with home advantage) cos Wexford will beat either to reach the QFs.

I expect Tyrone to take either Armagh or Wickow at home and then beat anything that comes second in Connacht to reach the Qfs.

Again it doesn't matter who wins between Antrim and Down as Cork will progress to QF.

Lastly Kildare will beat Meath and anything that comes out of the Ulster Final.

Last 4 qualifiers - Wexford, Tyrone, Cork and Kildare.
Champs - Kerry, Dublin, Rossies (I think) and would have said Derry only for E Bradley injury - too hard to call now.

LImerick,Wicklow,Antrim and Kildare to progress.

Real Kerry Fan wrote:LImerick,Wicklow,Antrim and Kildare to progress.

You shouldn't be drinking this early on a Monday .....

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Real Kerry Fan wrote:LImerick,Wicklow,Antrim and Kildare to progress.

You shouldn't be drinking this early on a Monday .....

You just wait. I am not near the bottom of the tipster competition for no reason.

Meath might beat Kildare if everything fell into place and Kildare put in a sub-par performance.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Meath might beat Kildare if everything fell into place and Kildare put in a sub-par performance.

Or if there bus breaks down..

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Meath might beat Kildare if everything fell into place and Kildare put in a sub-par performance.

I have to admire your optimism Loyal. My take would be that Meath might win if the Kildare ladies team show up ..... and only might.

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Meath might beat Kildare if everything fell into place and Kildare put in a sub-par performance.

I have to admire your optimism Loyal. My take would be that Meath might win if the Kildare ladies team show up ..... and only might.

That's it go ahead write us off

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Meath might beat Kildare if everything fell into place and Kildare put in a sub-par performance.

I have to admire your optimism Loyal. My take would be that Meath might win if the Kildare ladies team show up ..... and only might.

That's it go ahead write us off

Fooking miracle that ye are still even around to get beaten ....

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Meath might beat Kildare if everything fell into place and Kildare put in a sub-par performance.

I have to admire your optimism Loyal. My take would be that Meath might win if the Kildare ladies team show up ..... and only might.

That's it go ahead write us off

Fooking miracle that ye are still even around to get beaten ....

Says the one from Dublin who beat Kildare by a dodgy free and Wexford because they scored an own goal..

Oh yeah I forgot - own goals are illegal. No, sorry I am getting confused with a goal when somebody dives over the line with the ball ... which can happen in Leinster Finals apparently! Nothing illegal about our win dear. We are not ashamed to hold the O'Keeffe Cup ....

Jayo Cluxton wrote:Oh yeah I forgot - own goals are illegal. No, sorry I am getting confused with a goal when somebody dives over the line with the ball ... which can happen in Leinster Finals apparently! Nothing illegal about our win dear. We are not ashamed to hold the O'Keeffe Cup ....

Nothing illegal about either of our wins in the championship this year either so I don't see why last year has anything to do with this. You said that it's a miracle that we're still around to get beaten, well weren't Dublin very lucky to win the Leinster Championship? How is that different?

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:well weren't Dublin very lucky to win the Leinster Championship?

Eh .. absolutely not. Look we have won 6 out of the last 7 so its not even something that means anything to us - but it was nothing to do with cheating luck.

Look I think the Cup is somewhere down the Nth Inner City at the moment plugging a leak. We'll send it up to ye. We don't really bother with it at this stage having had it 50 times .....

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:well weren't Dublin very lucky to win the Leinster Championship?

Eh .. absolutely not. Look we have won 6 out of the last 7 so its not even something that means anything to us - but it was nothing to do with cheating luck.

Look I think the Cup is somewhere down the Nth Inner City at the moment plugging a leak. We'll send it up to ye. We don't really bother with it at this stage having had it 50 times .....

Well if that's how yous treat the silverware yous don't deserve Sam.. It would come back broken and banjaxed in general.

So you reckon no contentious decision has gone for Dublin over the last 7 years? (which is what happened us) You're dream man.

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:well weren't Dublin very lucky to win the Leinster Championship?

Eh .. absolutely not. Look we have won 6 out of the last 7 so its not even something that means anything to us - but it was nothing to do with cheating luck.

Look I think the Cup is somewhere down the Nth Inner City at the moment plugging a leak. We'll send it up to ye. We don't really bother with it at this stage having had it 50 times .....

Well if that's how yous treat the silverware yous don't deserve Sam.. It would come back broken and banjaxed in general.

So you reckon no contentious decision has gone for Dublin over the last 7 years? (which is what happened us) You're dream man.

A little tip ... I ALWAYS stop when I'm losing ......

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:well weren't Dublin very lucky to win the Leinster Championship?

Eh .. absolutely not. Look we have won 6 out of the last 7 so its not even something that means anything to us - but it was nothing to do with cheating luck.

Look I think the Cup is somewhere down the Nth Inner City at the moment plugging a leak. We'll send it up to ye. We don't really bother with it at this stage having had it 50 times .....

Well if that's how yous treat the silverware yous don't deserve Sam.. It would come back broken and banjaxed in general.

So you reckon no contentious decision has gone for Dublin over the last 7 years? (which is what happened us) You're dream man.

A little tip ... I ALWAYS stop when I'm losing ......

And going by the form of your county in recent years when you're winning too.

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:And going by the form of your county in recent years when you're winning too.

Well I always quit when I'm ahead .... some day you may have to make that call too ...

Jayo Cluxton wrote:

Royal_Girl2k9 wrote:And going by the form of your county in recent years when you're winning too.

Well I always quit when I'm ahead .... some day you may have to make that call too ...

Winners never quit and quitters never win.

There a few areas where I'll be hoping Meath can steal an advantage:

1) Kildare's FF line for the Laois game was Rob Kelly, Tomas O'Connor and Fionn Dowling. Two ex-midfielders and an eighteen year old. Between them, they only got 1-01 of Kildare's 3-16 total, although to be fair James Kavanagh came on for Kelly and kicked a goal. I'll be hoping the Meath backs can put the pressure on early, and force them to kick a couple of wides. Which will sow the seeds of doubt. O'Connor should be mince meat for Kevin Reilly, and the real dangerman could be Downling. But he's young and a warm Pairc Tailteann welcome might cause him to lose focus.

2) Kildare start slowly. Meath have to bag some quick early scores but equally as important is that they kick on on their lead. Not sit back on it, like what happened in the team's last two championship meetings. At some point in the second half, Kildare are going to get on top. So Meath will need a sizeable lead at HT, and they'll need to keep chipping away at the scoreboard, even if it's only one point to Kildare's two. Bray and Farrell in 2007 form, if only for one match only, would be fantastic.

3) Johnny Doyle is the main man for Kildare. It'll be interesting to see what Grimley and Banty do to curb his influence. Eventually he's going to run O'Rourke and Meade into the ground in midfield. I'd be inclined to send someone out to man-mark him, a player like Chris O'Connor. Has to be someone willing to sacrifice his own game for the team's benefit. This kind of tactic would also Shane O'Rourke to push that bit further forward. Whatever the strategy, Kildare are not nearly as good when Doyle isn't getting on the ball.

4) The man they call Leper has been making a habit of jumping into games in the 60th minute and causing devastion. Scored 0-4 against Meath late on, and 1-01 versus Dublin. If he was to have his routine sixty minutes and then be closely guarded by a pair of fresh legs, it might save Meath from a late Kildare flourish.