Mexican Stand off

The whole garglegate thing looks to be caught in a bit of stalemate

The backbenchers want a new leader to give them a chance of retaining seats in the next election
The backbenchers want a leadership challenge as nailing colours to the mast early can help promotion prospects
Whoever takes the leadership will probaly lose the next election for Fianna Fail and is exposed to getting the heave before 2016
The "independents" Lowry and healy rae have it handy and wont want the expense of an election at present and are probably parochial enough to be safe next time in any case
Some of the senior minsters are not in safe seats Martin and Smith so won't be keen for an election.

In summary though whoever takes the leadership now will never be taoiseach again and that should sway it
I predict Cowan will survive

Storm in a teacup. Biffo is sound and the country knows it. He is there for the long haul