2014 : Meath / Dublin

A lot of the analysis of this game is being made in the context of it being a 45 / 50 minute game. We'll put that argument to bed at the start of this thread because Meath are as well prepared as they have ever been for any championship and there'll be no problem lasting the pace.

Meath are improving and you only have to see how easily they have dealt with a handful of injuries to see that they are so well prepared. Everyone in this squad is going in the same direction. A lot is being made of the second half fadeout against Kildare and what I will say to that is it happened, it will have been addressed and it won't happen again. Meath players are only going to faster and stronger and grow in confidence as this game wears on.

The Dublin subs have been coming into games against Laois and Wexford and shooting the lights out when the games were practically over. When it's a tight game or when they're a few points behind and the pressure is on, that will be the acid test. I was looking at the Dublin subs from the programme the last day and Daragh Nelson, Bryan Cullen, Denis Bastick, Eoghan O'Gara and Mick Fitsimons do not strike fear into me.

The Dublin forwards are fairly mercurial too. Paul Mannion for example looked a great player last year but was well out of form for the u21s and looked incredibly rusty in the Wexford game. Alan Brogan should not be starting ahead of some of the subs on the bench. He's been a great player but he's out of his depth in this team. Bernard Brogan is coming into this game - a Leinster Final - with about 100 minutes of competitive football in 2014. Kevin McMenamin is a very good footballer but in a Dublin forward line where there is a lot of players fighting for places, he's never actually convinced when starting.

Meath are a team improving with every competitive minute of football they play. This game is perfectly poised for an improving team being written off by everyone to beat a team living on their past glory. Let's rewind the clock to last year's Ulster Final - a similar build-up with a shock outcome. Afterwards it was obvious to everyone. Yet we are here again and the pundits and the analysts are all after falling into the same trap again. Meath winning this game is not obvious now but afterwards it will have been.

Meath should be very worried about the last 20 mins v Dublin.Meath last game v Kildare they faded quiet badly and were hanging on in the end in case meath fans cant recall Dublin are hitting for home in the last 20 and usally see it out.

Meath will have 1 tactic tomorrow all out attack for 35 mins, see if they get a lead that they can fight for in the 2nd half,if they go in at H/T with a couple of points in front after giving it everything i would expect them to collapse and Dublin to cover the handicap betting.

Its easy to say Meath are improving and Dublin are living of past glories,but unless Meath are reaching the last 4 of the championship i don't see any difference this year in there team no pace in the middle god help them.Dublin past glories are here and now we have left the gap years behind.

The subs i see been used sunday to push for home are Mannion Costello Rock O'Gara Bastick and maybe daly at the back,these subs should make meath fans very worried there will be no let up of pace,and meath will know after this game that they are no closer to Dublin.

But its nice to see the Meath fans still live in hope

Don't foul stats below make interesting reading or maybe not

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champers wrote:
Don't foul stats below make interesting reading or maybe not

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I wasn't aware of this website, but it is excellent.  The opening paragraph of this article is eye-opening, explaining that Dublin's last 4 games have seen them average 54.5 possessions per game inside the opposition 45m line.  In over 100 previous matches they've tracked, non other side broke the 50 barrier even once.  

Very good analysis by both Loyal and Champers here.  I'd love to think that Meath could put it up to them for long periods, but I suspect that Dublin may put a marker down tomorrow.  To me, Dublin are following a similar pattern to the 1970s. The won a scrappy enough AI after a long period in the doldrums (1974/2011), lost out the next year, before coming back with a younger, faster and better side (1976/2013). For all the weaknesses that may be in their defence, they are just so fast and powerful. In my opinion, only injuries to one or more of their key players (Cluxton/MDMA/Bernard) could possibly stop them retaining their AI title.

Champers - what is the story with McCaffrey not starting?  I know he is not the best defensively, but he offers so much going forward.  Additionally, Nolan has hardly been great in the games in which he's got the nod.

Not sure where to start the referee disallowing the Meath goal, the biting incident or Connolly not shaking hands with Paddy O'Rourke. I'll sum all 3 up by saying I was disappointed by all.

Dublin looked good today but they were allowed get a foothold in the game with the help of the referee and some favourable deflections off the post. You can't train for luck like that and in a game where refereeing can swing a game one way or the other, it's vital to get the calls right. I must admit I found it strange the referee was from Armagh given the high probability the loser would meet Armagh in their next game.

Some Meath players didn't perform as well as you'd have liked but I did think Kevin Reilly, Donal Keoghan, Donnacha Tobin, Andrew Tormey, Stephen Bray and Mickey Newman all done alright. From a Meath point of view I'd hope they can but this day behind and concentrate on the Armagh game. Mick O'Dowd said in his interview the performance didn't reflect the preparation so let's hope we can see the benefits of that preparation in 2 weeks time.

Moving onto some of the talking points, I don't see why Diarmuid Connolly had to go looking for attention by not shaking hands with all the Meath players before the game? Is this mind games or what? Obviously he only freaked himself out as his shooting was appalling. The optics of his snub don't look good either.

Also can anyone explain what is the point of Jim Gavin naming a team? 3 changes today. Surely these 3 changes didn't come about since last Friday evening? Talk about treating supporters and the media with contempt.

Finally Eoghan O'Gara was having a great season up until about the 65th minute. There can be no excuse for biting a player and this is the third biting incident involving a Dublin player. I'll disappointed if O'Gara plays another game in this year's championship as a clear message should be sent to Dublin to cut out this behaviour. Three times is too many.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:
Also can anyone explain what is the point of Jim Gavin naming a team? 3 changes today. Surely these 3 changes didn't come about since last Friday evening? Talk about treating supporters and the media with contempt.

He's also treating the players with contempt. In years to come, Paul Mannion, Mick Fitzsimmons and Jack McCaffrey will not see their names on the programme of the day they hammered Meath in an AI final. I'm sure that it won't annoy them today, but it might when their children and grandchildren are reading through them in years to come.

As for Connolly, well, the only time he has ever come across as a half decent sort was then he was working a charm offensive in order to avoid a custodial sentence for assault.

If it does turn out to be another bite (from O'Gara), then expect little action from the Dublin manager. It's in these sort of incidents, like with Whelan and O'Brien previously, that I have least time for Gavin. He has a brilliant side who play great football, but he ignores or defends the indefensible.

Well jim gave Meath the respect they were graving and they paid a heavy price,regards the changes before kick off 2 of them were forced on to gavin not a lot he could do about that.Once i seen rilley in midfield i knew it was all over for Meath crazy move

As for the connolly and o'rourke coming together i think connolly was always going to blank him after his twitter comments

as for o gara incident what can you do if some one his trying to rip your mouth open,3/4 Meath players punced Dublin players really was shocking stuff from the royals,i guess it was planned if o'gara and rilley clashed it was 1 in all in,only they didn't realise it was the last 5 mins of a hopeless challange

Wish Meath well going forward and i hope they recover well and try to get to the next level,yesterday was only a leinster championship big prize is next

Dublin ended up taking more shots in the first half than Meath did in the whole game (despite RTE's frankly shocking, and repeated, inability to count). Oh and yes, DontFoul's site is fantastic.

How many Meath players can expect at least one game bans. 3 or 4 clearly caught swinging punches that were alot clearer on camera than anything seen during Armagh v Cavan game.

emmetryan wrote:Dublin ended up taking more shots in the first half than Meath did in the whole game (despite RTE's frankly shocking, and repeated, inability to count). Oh and yes, DontFoul's site is fantastic.

I don't believe this. Dublin scored 1-12 in the first half, I can't remember too many wides. Meath scored 1-10 in the whole game and must have had about a dozen wides (most of them in the first 25 minutes).

champers wrote:Well jim gave Meath the respect they were graving and they paid a heavy price,regards the changes before kick off 2 of them were forced on to gavin not a lot he could do about that.Once i seen rilley in midfield i knew it was all over for Meath crazy move

As for the connolly and o'rourke coming together i think connolly was always going to blank him after his twitter  comments

as for o gara incident what can you do if some one his trying to rip your mouth open,3/4 Meath players punced Dublin players really was shocking stuff from the royals,i guess it was planned if o'gara and rilley clashed it was 1 in all in,only they didn't realise it was the last 5 mins of a hopeless challange

Wish Meath well going forward and i hope they recover well and try to get to the next level,yesterday was only a leinster championship big prize is next

Who were the 2 enforced changes? The team was named Friday night so it was must have been a fairly eventful Saturday to lose 2 players.

This is the norm with Jim Gavin. 2 -3 changes before throw-in.

Why not shake hands anyway? Most of Connolly's were token handshakes anyway. Why draw more negative attention.

Loyal2TheRoyal the vast majority of Dublin's misses fell short rather than going wide (RTE count more than sides too BTW so that isn't the reason they are off so often). Dublin took 27 shots in the first half, 19 in the second, for a total of 46. Meath had 13 shots in each half, for a total of 26.

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Good read emmet as always

With dublin breaking all stats at the moment where do you see Dublin biggest rival for Sam coming from

The best team to give them a challenge is Mayo...who I'm not all that confident will still be there for the final.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:

champers wrote:Well jim gave Meath the respect they were graving and they paid a heavy price,regards the changes before kick off 2 of them were forced on to gavin not a lot he could do about that.Once i seen rilley in midfield i knew it was all over for Meath crazy move

As for the connolly and o'rourke coming together i think connolly was always going to blank him after his twitter  comments

as for o gara incident what can you do if some one his trying to rip your mouth open,3/4 Meath players punced Dublin players really was shocking stuff from the royals,i guess it was planned if o'gara and rilley clashed it was 1 in all in,only they didn't realise it was the last 5 mins of a hopeless challange

Wish Meath well going forward and i hope they recover well and try to get to the next level,yesterday was only a leinster championship big prize is next

Who were the 2 enforced changes? The team was named Friday night so it was must have been a fairly eventful Saturday to lose 2 players.

This is the norm with Jim Gavin. 2 -3 changes before throw-in.

Why not shake hands anyway? Most of Connolly's were token handshakes anyway. Why draw more negative attention.

Loyal i believe the team announced has to be giving to croker on the tuesday before games for programmes

Dublin panel is huge loyal 3 changes before kick off 3 long term injuries 6 subs to change a game a host of players not in the 26,why not change it if it feels right

Meath brought all the negative attention all on their own after this game sad really

Connolly doesn't talk to media /o'rourke so why should he shake his hand did o'rourke say sorry to connolly

emmetryan wrote:The best team to give them a challenge is Mayo...who I'm not all that confident will still be there for the final.

I would have Kerry down as the strongest team on that side of the draw.Mayo have added nothing to there panel since september not a good sign for them

In 2012 emmet you pointed out that Dublin would not win sam if my memborie is correct,what makes you think that Dublin are in a better position in 2014 beyond the stats?

thanks

A couple of things, although they are somewhat rooted in stats.

The biggest issue isn't so much how good Dublin are but their massive depth advantage. It was much closer 2 years ago. Age/fatigue is an issue for pretty much every other contender with any semblance of a bench bar Mayo. That's why I think Mayo are best placed to live with this Dublin team over 70 minutes. The reason I'm not entirely confident they get a shot is that their defensive play has gone backwards and much of that comes down to how much weaker they are tracking back than a year ago.

From a Dublin style perspective, last year was a hard shift in style from Gilroy's approach. Dublin play much higher, that took a while to adapt to but they still put up more shots per game than anyone (Mayo were VERY close in this respect) but their defence leaned too much on Paul Flynn (particularly in the second half of games) despite playing well overall as a unit.

Well as Flynn has played in 2014, and he's playing really well, he's not saving Dublin's life any more because he doesn't have to. The full back line still struggles under high balls but opponents need to convert those chances faster as the supporting defensive cover is far more on game this year.

Getting back to the playing higher thing, aided by Dublin's depth, they are far better placed to counter attack now. That's why we are seeing them put up pretty ludicrous shot differences in most games. Despite appearing an ugly stat, even on narrow margins it's a remarkably good indicator of predicting victory.