Tips/Predictions/Bets

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Parouisa on Wed Jan 09, 2013 3:56 pm

Latest from Ladbrokes. Not very generous with Leitrim.


Cork 7/2
Kerry 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Dublin 9/2
Mayo 10/1
Tyrone 14/1
Kildare 16/1
Meath 28/1
Armagh 40/1
Derry 40/1
Down 40/1
Galway 40/1
Laois 66/1
Monaghan 80/1
Wexford 100/1
Limerick 150/1
Longford 150/1
Roscommon 150/1
Sligo 150/1
Antrim 250/1
Louth 250/1
Offaly 250/1
Tipperary 250/1
Westmeath 250/1
Wicklow 250/1
Carlow 500/1
Cavan 500/1
Clare 500/1
Fermanagh 500/1
Leitrim 1000/1
London 1000/1
Waterford 1000/1
New York 5000
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:25 pm

Parouisa wrote:Latest from Ladbrokes. Not very generous with Leitrim.


Cork 7/2
Kerry 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Dublin 9/2
Mayo 10/1
Tyrone 14/1
Kildare 16/1
Meath 28/1
Armagh 40/1
Derry 40/1
Down 40/1
Galway 40/1
Laois 66/1
Monaghan 80/1
Wexford 100/1
Limerick 150/1
Longford 150/1
Roscommon 150/1
Sligo 150/1
Antrim 250/1
Louth 250/1
Offaly 250/1
Tipperary 250/1
Westmeath 250/1
Wicklow 250/1
Carlow 500/1
Cavan 500/1
Clare 500/1
Fermanagh 500/1
Leitrim 1000/1
London 1000/1
Waterford 1000/1
New York 5000


To add perspective Paddy Power are offering 500/1 on rosanna davidsons wedding dress coming from Dunnes Stores, or 100/1 on lady ga ga calling her child banana, 100/1 that Lance will be next president of UCI
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  GAA-Fan on Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:27 pm

Being very generous to Armagh. I suppose it is because they have what is perceived as the easier route to Ulster Final.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:35 pm

gaa-fan wrote:Being very generous to Armagh. I suppose it is because they have what is perceived as the easier route to Ulster Final.

Joint longest odds of any All Ireland winner in last 30'years, and 2nd longest in last 65
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  RMDrive on Wed Jan 09, 2013 9:36 pm

Parouisa wrote:Latest from Ladbrokes. Not very generous with Leitrim.


Cork 7/2
Kerry 7/2
Donegal 4/1
Dublin 9/2
Mayo 10/1
Tyrone 14/1
Kildare 16/1
Meath 28/1
Armagh 40/1
Derry 40/1
Down 40/1
Galway 40/1
Laois 66/1
Monaghan 80/1
Wexford 100/1
Limerick 150/1
Longford 150/1
Roscommon 150/1
Sligo 150/1
Antrim 250/1
Louth 250/1
Offaly 250/1
Tipperary 250/1
Westmeath 250/1
Wicklow 250/1
Carlow 500/1
Cavan 500/1
Clare 500/1
Fermanagh 500/1
Leitrim 1000/1
London 1000/1
Waterford 1000/1
New York 5000

Tyrone and Laois would jump out as being too long.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  GAA-Fan on Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:00 pm

OMAR wrote:
gaa-fan wrote:Being very generous to Armagh. I suppose it is because they have what is perceived as the easier route to Ulster Final.

Joint longest odds of any All Ireland winner in last 30'years, and 2nd longest in last 65

Was Armagh the last?
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Wed Jan 09, 2013 10:09 pm

gaa-fan wrote:
OMAR wrote:
gaa-fan wrote:Being very generous to Armagh. I suppose it is because they have what is perceived as the easier route to Ulster Final.

Joint longest odds of any All Ireland winner in last 30'years, and 2nd longest in last 65

Was Armagh the last?


Offaly 30 years ago have higher odds. All other teams that have won Sam since 1948 have odds of 40/1 or lower.
I suppose main observation from that is how far Offaly have fallen in pecking order in a few decades
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Boxtyeater on Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:07 am

We're tremendous value at 1,000/1

A last 8 if not a last 4 isn't beyond us...
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Parouisa on Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:11 am

RMDrive wrote:
Tyrone 14/1
Laois 66/1

Tyrone and Laois would jump out as being too long.[/quote]

Laois will win nothing - 66/1 for Sam is realistic. 14/1 is not overly generous for Tyrone at all.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Thomas Clarke on Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:16 am

Draw a line under Mayo. The rest of the odds are merely conversation pieces, as no-one will be collecting on any of them.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Parouisa on Thu Jan 10, 2013 10:18 am

So you reckon we will all collect at 10/1 ... or are you being facetious?

There is no good value here in all honesty.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:00 pm

Parouisa wrote:So you reckon we will all collect at 10/1 ... or are you being facetious?

There is no good value here in all honesty.

27% loading or 21.4% of the pot is for the bookie



Probability Cumulative

Cork 7/2 22.22% 22.2%
Kerry 7/2 22.22% 44.4%
Donegal 4/1 20.00% 64.4%
Dublin 9/2 18.18% 82.6%
Mayo 10/1 9.09% 91.7%
Tyrone 14/1 6.67% 98.4%
Kildare 16/1 5.88% 104.3%
Meath 28/1 3.45% 107.7%
Armagh 40/1 2.44% 110.2%
Derry 40/1 2.44% 112.6%
Down 40/1 2.44% 115.0%
Galway 40/1 2.44% 117.5%
Laois 66/1 1.49% 119.0%
Monaghan 80/1 1.23% 120.2%
Wexford 100/1 0.99% 121.2%
Limerick 150/1 0.66% 121.9%
Longford 150/1 0.66% 122.5%
Roscommon 150/1 0.66% 123.2%
Sligo 150/1 0.66% 123.8%
Antrim 250/1 0.40% 124.2%
Louth 250/1 0.40% 124.6%
Offaly 250/1 0.40% 125.0%
Tipperary 250/1 0.40% 125.4%
Westmeath 250/1 0.40% 125.8%
Wicklow 250/1 0.40% 126.2%
Carlow 500/1 0.20% 126.4%
Cavan 500/1 0.20% 126.6%
Clare 500/1 0.20% 126.8%
Fermanagh 500/1 0.20% 127.0%
Leitrim 1000/1 0.10% 127.1%
London 1000/1 0.10% 127.2%
Waterford 1000/1 0.10% 127.3%
New York 5000 0.02% 127.3%
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Parouisa on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:08 pm

Jaysus O - you have faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar too much time on yer hands ....
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:12 pm

Parouisa wrote:Jaysus O - you have faaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaar too much time on yer hands ....

Its an excercise well worth doing every now and again and the 27.3% needs to be compared to the 5% commission you will pay on a no margin betting exchange.

In reality what I find is that the pricing for the top 2/3 in the betting order actually tends to be fair value because this is where bookies compete - The real bad value is once you go outside 10/1
Its not uncommon to see a lazy 14/1 offered for an outsider when the price of the same bet on an exchange is in the twenties




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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Thomas Clarke on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:15 pm

Parouisa wrote:So you reckon we will all collect at 10/1 ... or are you being facetious?

There is no good value here in all honesty.

Agreed that there is no value, with the possible exception of Dublin.

No-one outside the top 5 in the betting will win the all-ireland, so there is no value whatsoever in anyone outside 10-1.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Parouisa on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:24 pm

I genuinely think we will be a better team than 2011 this year. Whether that is good enough remains to be seen but I will not be biting at 9/2.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:27 pm

Parouisa wrote:I genuinely think we will be a better team than 2011 this year. Whether that is good enough remains to be seen but I will not be biting at 9/2.

I see Dorothy is back from OZ
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Parouisa on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:29 pm

OMAR wrote:I see Dorothy is back from OZ

Hope she brought back Ciaran Kilkenny ....
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  GAA-Fan on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:30 pm

I am tempted to back Donegal for sam 2013. I think they were much better than what any other county had to offer last year and I think they still have this year, the only problem I have with them is Jim, no matter what he says he will not be 100% focussed on the job until the end of the scottish football season.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Thomas Clarke on Thu Jan 10, 2013 12:49 pm

gaa-fan wrote:I am tempted to back Donegal for sam 2013. I think they were much better than what any other county had to offer last year and I think they still have this year, the only problem I have with them is Jim, no matter what he says he will not be 100% focussed on the job until the end of the scottish football season.

There is truth in what you say. Donegal have a good chance to retain their title, and could well do so.

However, no football manager has won back-to-back all irelands in over 20 years so, despite Jim being quite brilliant, the odds don't look favourable to me.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  GAA-Fan on Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:11 pm

Thomas Clarke wrote:
gaa-fan wrote:I am tempted to back Donegal for sam 2013. I think they were much better than what any other county had to offer last year and I think they still have this year, the only problem I have with them is Jim, no matter what he says he will not be 100% focussed on the job until the end of the scottish football season.

There is truth in what you say. Donegal have a good chance to retain their title, and could well do so.

However, no football manager has won back-to-back all irelands in over 20 years so, despite Jim being quite brilliant, the odds don't look favourable to me.

Not that it is a reason fro them to win it again, ok it could be in some ways but if you look at Donegal 2 years ago, they were destroyed by Armagh who appear to be in a poor state at the moment and they were going downhill and to add to that Donegal were beaten by one of the weakest Ulster teams - Cavan (no offence to Cavan posters). Honestly, I would have thought Donegal would have just became irrelevant, a team that other counties would just turn up against - things looked like they were going that way. In comes Jim, turns the team around completely, what he has done is phenomenal and I think this is just the start for them. You can forget the likes of Kernan, Harte and the rest, this guy has changed football again. Time to see who can match them, personally I am not fearful of losing to Donegal, and I would like to see Armagh play them at some point next year, and I am sure that Donegal would love to play Armagh.

In short my point is, is that if he can bring a team to where they are now from where they were before, he may be able to win back to back all Irelands.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Thomas Clarke on Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:22 pm

I agree with all that, GF. But I still don't see much value at 4-1!
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  GAA-Fan on Thu Jan 10, 2013 1:30 pm

Thomas Clarke wrote:I agree with all that, GF. But I still don't see much value at 4-1!

I will wait till Tyrone beat them before I place any bets Wink
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  hurlingguru on Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:35 pm

Antrim to beat Carlow in the Walsh Cup on Sunday. Evens, absolutely buying money.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  OMAR on Fri Jan 18, 2013 8:42 pm

hurlingguru wrote:Antrim to beat Carlow in the Walsh Cup on Sunday. Evens, absolutely buying money.

Any insight on what strength teams either side intend to field. ?
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