Tips/Predictions/Bets

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Mon Mar 16, 2009 11:55 pm

If it a NR do you not get your money back?

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:07 am

Niamh_Derry wrote:If it a NR do you not get your money back?

Afraid not. That is the joy of ante-post betting. But I could list off endless reasons why I think the horse will run and one or two why he might not. Since you backed him though, and since it was off of me you decided to back him, I will put 10each way on tomorrow. Just to prove I am somewhat confident he'll run and run well.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Tue Mar 17, 2009 12:13 am

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:
Niamh_Derry wrote:If it a NR do you not get your money back?

Afraid not. That is the joy of ante-post betting. But I could list off endless reasons why I think the horse will run and one or two why he might not. Since you backed him though, and since it was off of me you decided to back him, I will put 10each way on tomorrow. Just to prove I am somewhat confident he'll run and run well.

I only put £3 on him, so if he loses no bigge if he wins £102 coming my way!!

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Wed Mar 18, 2009 12:46 pm

Well the good news is that he's still entered after 44 horses defected at the latest forfeit stage at 12 o'clock today.

The bad news is that he is now set to carry 10st 10lbs and if as I predict, Snoopy Loopy dosen't run, that will leave him on 10st 12lbs - which is just below the 11st cut off point (basically you will be defying a lot of history if you carry that weight or more to victory in the National). So if any more horses towards the top of the handicap come out, it is not good.

But the more I think I about it, the more confident I get about Offshore Account's chances.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  bocerty on Wed Mar 18, 2009 1:46 pm

Loyal - you were confident in Meath All Star's chances last week and look what happened!!!!!! Very Happy
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Wed Mar 18, 2009 1:55 pm

bocerty wrote:Loyal - you were confident in Meath All Star's chances last week and look what happened!!!!!! Very Happy

Yes I was but I convinced myself he was better than he was. In hindsight, Dunguib was the best horse I had seen before that race but I let a theory that Willie Mullins would train the winner coupled with the name of Meath AllStar cloud my judgement. Looking back, I deserved to get all I got when backing Meath AllStar.

I'd be more hopeful than confident about Offshore Account at this stage. His enormous price is what makes stand out now.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  bocerty on Wed Mar 18, 2009 3:04 pm

i hope so Loyal - i stuck £10 e/w on it on your say so Laughing - i did notice the odds had dropped to 50/1 and then 33/1 so i figured there must be some interest in the horse.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 19, 2009 3:25 pm

Off shore account has dropped to 25/1 now

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  clash-of-da-ash on Thu Mar 19, 2009 4:18 pm

Where can I find the list of weights or are they not announced yet?
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  bald eagle on Thu Mar 19, 2009 4:20 pm

clash-of-da-ash wrote:Where can I find the list of weights or are they not announced yet?

Won't be announced for a few days yet lad.

Anyone going? I never miss it!!

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:19 pm

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:25 pm

**** that!

The weights are on RacingPost.com

I'm not sure if you need to be registered to see them as I am permeantly logged in but here's the link:

http://www.racingpost.com/horses/racing.sd?r_date=2009-04-04#top

Basically, the weights were announced in the second last week of February and at the latest forfeit stage yesterday, 88 entries had stood their ground. At the minute Snoopy Loopy is top weight, Clash, but I don't think he'll run meaning everything will go up 2lbs again. Also only 40 horses can run but at the minute 88 want to run so lots will be balloted out. I'd estimate the cut off point will be 10st 4lbs! If you fancy a horse with less than this weight, my advice is back him NOW! The chances are that he won't run and that fact will have been taken into account with regards his price. However you get your money back if he is balloted out - he has to be balloted out though.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 19, 2009 8:29 pm

Listen Offshore Account is far from a certainity. This is the Grand National, it is a race for the ordinary five-eighth - gives people a chance to have a once a year bet. The chances of something going wrong is five times greater in the National, you couldn't be overly confident about anything.

In saying that, every year, there is a few Irish plots. I reckon this is the plot! It or Ted Walsh's horse!

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  clash-of-da-ash on Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:33 pm

Thanks Loyal.

Got a tip for Black Apalachi but at 11-2 I reckon he is too heavy seeing as no horse as heavy as that has won since 1983. Would you say between 10-2 and 10-9 would be the target weight, Hedgehunter might have won at 11-1 but in my opinion he was the best Grand National horse since Red Rum.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 19, 2009 9:56 pm

The name Black Apalachi makes me cry. I backed him in all his races at double figure prices last year and he came second and third so many times I nearly gave up. But in I went again at 50/1 in the Grand National and he falls at the second fence!

Then first time up this season he wins at 14/1 and is automatically favourite for the National. Did I back him? No! No horse has broke my heart like he has.

Anyway when backing a horse in the National, look for one that hits on the following trends:

Weight
Back a horse with 11st 1lbs or less. Both well handicapped and badly handicapped horses have tried to carry more than this weight and failed miserably.

Age
Horses aged 7 or less have a terrible record primarily becauce few try. 11yos and 12yos have good records but the race is a lot different to what it was in the olden days so I would be inclined to concentrate on horses aged 8, 9 or 10!

Nationality
French breds have a record in the Grand National worse than Germany in world wars. However, I would be inclined to ignore this as they have been going closer and closer to winning each year. Also there ie little reasoning to back this stat up.

Form
Horses who have finished third in any of their last three races have won 20 of the last 20 races. Also horses who have run well in the Irish National, Welsh National, Hennessy Gold Cup and any Cheltenham festival race have a fantastic record.

Course
Backing horses who have run well at the course before is also a good idea.

The Grand National is essentially a race for the statsman. There are more stats than this and each year I like to draw hope a list of about 5 or 6 who meet all the trends.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Jayo Cluxton on Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:01 pm

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:The name Black Apalachi makes me cry. I backed him in all his races at double figure prices last year and he came second and third so many times I nearly gave up. But in I went again at 50/1 in the Grand National and he falls at the second fence!

Then first time up this season he wins at 14/1 and is automatically favourite for the National. Did I back him? No! No horse has broke my heart like he has.

Anyway when backing a horse in the National, look for one that hits on the following trends:

Weight
Back a horse with 11st 1lbs or less. Both well handicapped and badly handicapped horses have tried to carry more than this weight and failed miserably.

Age
Horses aged 7 or less have a terrible record primarily becauce few try. 11yos and 12yos have good records but the race is a lot different to what it was in the olden days so I would be inclined to concentrate on horses aged 8, 9 or 10!

Nationality
French breds have a record in the Grand National worse than Germany in world wars. However, I would be inclined to ignore this as they have been going closer and closer to winning each year. Also there ie little reasoning to back this stat up.

Form
Horses who have finished third in any of their last three races have won 20 of the last 20 races. Also horses who have run well in the Irish National, Welsh National, Hennessy Gold Cup and any Cheltenham festival race have a fantastic record.

Course
Backing horses who have run well at the course before is also a good idea.

The Grand National is essentially a race for the statsman. There are more stats than this and each year I like to draw hope a list of about 5 or 6 who meet all the trends.

Excellent stuff Loyal. Can you do all that please - save us all doing it? Neutral
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:17 pm

Haven't looked too closely myself yet!

But Brooklyn Brownie, Southern Vic, Offshore Account, Rambling Minster, Priests Leap and Character Building are the ones whose names are bouncing around. And I'd rule out the last three on account of age, ground and bridle horse respectively. Don't particularly like the first horse either.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Jayo Cluxton on Thu Mar 19, 2009 10:27 pm

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Haven't looked too closely myself yet!

But Brooklyn Brownie, Southern Vic, Offshore Account, Rambling Minster, Priests Leap and Character Building are the ones whose names are bouncing around. And I'd rule out the last three on account of age, ground and bridle horse respectively. Don't particularly like the first horse either.

Character Building delivered big time for me last Thursday so it owes me nothing!
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:40 pm

Signal fire in 7.30 at dundalk

Bobs pride 9.00

2 x singles
1 x double

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  bocerty on Fri Mar 20, 2009 1:44 pm

samin10 is that a tip or just a gut feeling?
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  clash-of-da-ash on Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:35 am

Who would be the greatest horses of All time (National Hunt)? I saw that picture that says "the three kings" and it has Desert Orchid, Red Rum and Arkle. Although I think Desert Orchid is a great horse is one Gold Cup enough though to warrant greatness. Would horses such as Istabraq, Best Mate, L'Escargot and Hedgehunter not be more worthy.
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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Sat Mar 21, 2009 12:58 am

I'm not following racing all that long so I don't know a great deal. Although, its widely believed that Arkle is the best of all time. But on Hedgehunter, I don't think he was that great, he had that bit of class alright but Beef or Salmon for example was a fair bit better than Hedgehunter I would have thought. And then on Istabraq, well he was a class apart too.

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Sun Mar 22, 2009 11:02 pm

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:I'm not following racing all that long so I don't know a great deal. Although, its widely believed that Arkle is the best of all time. But on Hedgehunter, I don't think he was that great, he had that bit of class alright but Beef or Salmon for example was a fair bit better than Hedgehunter I would have thought. And then on Istabraq, well he was a class apart too.

Hedgehunter won 2 or 3 years ago didn't he? Loyal out of interest,has any horse ever won consecutive grand nationals?

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Mon Mar 23, 2009 12:06 am

On Paddy Power Derry have dropped from 6/1 to 5/1 for the USFC and for the AI they have droped hugley from 22/1 to 14/1!

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Re: Tips/Predictions/Bets

Post  Guest on Mon Mar 23, 2009 4:18 pm

Niamh_Derry wrote:
Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:I'm not following racing all that long so I don't know a great deal. Although, its widely believed that Arkle is the best of all time. But on Hedgehunter, I don't think he was that great, he had that bit of class alright but Beef or Salmon for example was a fair bit better than Hedgehunter I would have thought. And then on Istabraq, well he was a class apart too.

Hedgehunter won 2 or 3 years ago didn't he? Loyal out of interest,has any horse ever won consecutive grand nationals?

Red Rum won it three times. He is the only horse to have won it that many times. It's almost impossible to win the race more than once (although, with a bit of luck, Hedgehunter would probably have did it) since you get crushed with weight once you win.

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