Tips/Predictions/Bets

If it a NR do you not get your money back?

Niamh_Derry wrote:If it a NR do you not get your money back?

Afraid not. That is the joy of ante-post betting. But I could list off endless reasons why I think the horse will run and one or two why he might not. Since you backed him though, and since it was off of me you decided to back him, I will put 10each way on tomorrow. Just to prove I am somewhat confident he'll run and run well.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:

Niamh_Derry wrote:If it a NR do you not get your money back?

Afraid not. That is the joy of ante-post betting. But I could list off endless reasons why I think the horse will run and one or two why he might not. Since you backed him though, and since it was off of me you decided to back him, I will put 10each way on tomorrow. Just to prove I am somewhat confident he'll run and run well.

I only put £3 on him, so if he loses no bigge if he wins £102 coming my way!!

Well the good news is that he's still entered after 44 horses defected at the latest forfeit stage at 12 o'clock today.

The bad news is that he is now set to carry 10st 10lbs and if as I predict, Snoopy Loopy dosen't run, that will leave him on 10st 12lbs - which is just below the 11st cut off point (basically you will be defying a lot of history if you carry that weight or more to victory in the National). So if any more horses towards the top of the handicap come out, it is not good.

But the more I think I about it, the more confident I get about Offshore Account's chances.

Loyal - you were confident in Meath All Star's chances last week and look what happened!!!!!!

bocerty wrote:Loyal - you were confident in Meath All Star's chances last week and look what happened!!!!!!

Yes I was but I convinced myself he was better than he was. In hindsight, Dunguib was the best horse I had seen before that race but I let a theory that Willie Mullins would train the winner coupled with the name of Meath AllStar cloud my judgement. Looking back, I deserved to get all I got when backing Meath AllStar.

I'd be more hopeful than confident about Offshore Account at this stage. His enormous price is what makes stand out now.

i hope so Loyal - i stuck £10 e/w on it on your say so - i did notice the odds had dropped to 50/1 and then 33/1 so i figured there must be some interest in the horse.

Off shore account has dropped to 25/1 now

Where can I find the list of weights or are they not announced yet?

clash-of-da-ash wrote:Where can I find the list of weights or are they not announced yet?

Won't be announced for a few days yet lad.

Anyone going? I never miss it!!

7-4 Afistfullofdollars 48 11 11-6 Noel Meade 157 83 147b g Be My Native (USA) — Myra Gaye (Buckskin (FR))26U Alexanderthegreat 23 11 9-5 Miss Venetia Williams 128 142 160b g Supreme Leader — Sandy Jayne (IRE) (Royal Fountain)PPP Always Waining 21 8 10-5 P Bowen 142 172 173b g Unfuwain (USA) — Glenarff (USA) (Irish River (FR))7-0 Arteea 23 10 10-2 D E Pipe 139 97 122b g Oscar (IRE) — Merric (IRE) (Electric)P6- Bagan 365 10 9-13 M Todhunter 136 160 160b/br g Rainbow Quest (USA) — Maid Of Erin (USA) (Irish River (FR))45P Battlecry 42 8 10-7 N A Twiston-Davies 144 151 175b/br g Accordion — Miss Orchestra (IRE) (Orchestra)PFP Beat The Boys 21 8 9-13 N A Twiston-Davies 136 146 168gr g Portrait Gallery (IRE) — Portia´s Delight (IRE) (The Parson)86F Bible Lord 23 8 9-13 Andrew Turnell 136 166 172ch g Mister Lord (USA) — Pharisee (IRE) (Phardante (FR))U13 Big Fella Thanks 42 7 10-12 P F Nicholls 149 129 172b g Primitive Rising (USA) — Nunsdream (Derrylin)151 Black Apalachi 42 10 11-2 D T Hughes 153 150 176b g Old Vic — Hattons Dream (IRE) (Be My Native (USA))921 Brooklyn Brownie 21 10 10-3 J M Jefferson 140 165 168b g Presenting — In The Brownies (IRE) (Lafontaine (USA))085 Butler´s Cabin 23 9 10-10 Jonjo O´Neill 147 126 154b g Poliglote — Strictly Cool (USA) (Bering)314 Can´t Buy Time 24 7 10-6 Jonjo O´Neill 143 155 168b g Supreme Leader — Sales Centre (Deep Run)P-0 Cerium 22 8 10-2 Paul Murphy 139 148 154b g Vaguely Pleasant (FR) — Tantatura (FR) (Akarad (FR))391 Character Building 23 9 10-3 J J Quinn 140 151 175gr g Accordion — Mrs Jones (IRE) (Roselier (FR))234 Chelsea Harbour 21 9 11-5 Thomas Mullins 156 138 171b g Old Vic — Jennyellen (IRE) (Phardante (FR))31F Cloudy Lane 35 9 11-7 D McCain Jnr 158 92 172b g Cloudings (IRE) — Celtic Cygnet (Celtic Cone)113 Companero 63 9 10-0 J Howard Johnson 137 110 169b g Supreme Leader — Smart Decision (IRE) (Le Moss)P07 Comply Or Die 25 10 11-3 D E Pipe 154 168 169b g Old Vic — Madam Madcap (Furry Glen)976 Conna Castle 42 10 10-3 James Joseph Mangan 140 138 170b g Germany (USA) — Mrs Hegarty (Decent Fellow)128 Cornish Sett 49 10 10-7 P F Nicholls 144 166 171b g Accordion — Hue ´N´ Cry (IRE) (Denel (FR))3P1 Darkness 35 10 10-6 C R Egerton 143 172 178ch g Accordion — Winnowing (IRE) (Strong Gale)915 Dix Villez 25 10 9-13 Paul Nolan 136 159 164b g Villez (USA) — Dix Huit Brumaire (FR) (General Assembly (USA))0P0 Dun Doire 41 10 9-7 A J Martin 130 - 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81b g Oscar (IRE) — Siberiansdaughter (IRE) (Strong Gale)-P0 Milan Deux Mille 33 7 9-5 D E Pipe 128 - -b g Double Bed (FR) — Uberaba (FR) (Garde Royale)278 Mon Mome 21 9 10-11 Miss Venetia Williams 148 155 172b g Passing Sale (FR) — Etoile Du Lion (FR) (New Target)7PP Mont Misere 99 13 8-12 Paul Murphy 121 - -b g Mont Basile (FR) — Pique Flamme (FR) (Lou Piguet (FR))187 Musica Bella 34 9 10-7 F-M Cottin 144 - -b m Bateau Rouge — Cate Bleue (FR) (Katowice (FR))/55 My Will 22 9 11-1 P F Nicholls 152 167 179b g Saint Preuil (FR) — Gleep Will (FR) (Laniste)374 Nadover 49 8 9-12 C J Mann 135 146 171br g Cyborg (FR) — Djerissa (FR) (Highlanders (FR))148 Niche Market 24 8 10-0 R H Buckler 137 115 167b g Presenting — Juresse (IRE) (Jurado (USA))P43 Nine De Sivola 24 8 9-11 Ferdy Murphy 134 159 165b g Video Rock (FR) — Quine De Chalamont (FR) (Do Do (FR))1P0 Nozic 42 8 11-8 P F Nicholls 159 102 171b g Port Lyautey (FR) — Grizilh (FR) (Spoleto)2-2 Offshore Account 20 9 10-10 C F Swan 147 - -b g Oscar (IRE) — Park Breeze (IRE) (Strong Gale)558 Ollie Magern 25 11 11-3 N A Twiston-Davies 154 127 169b g Alderbrook — Outfield (Monksfield)238 Oodachee 23 10 9-9 C F Swan 132 159 161b g Marju (IRE) — Lady Marguerrite (Blakeney)541 Out The Black 35 11 9-7 P J Hobbs 130 160 165b/br g Presenting — Executive Wonder (IRE) (Executive Perk)F8- Pak Jack 343 9 9-12 R T Phillips 135 124 162ch g Pitchounet (FR) — Miss Noir Et Or (FR) (Noir Et Or)-1P Parsons Legacy 113 11 10-9 P J Hobbs 146 140 172b g Leading Counsel (USA) — The Parson´s Girl (IRE) (The Parson)7FP Pass Me By 25 10 8-13 Miss Suzy Smith 122 154 170b g Balnibarbi — Errol Emerald (Dom Racine (FR))08F Patsy Hall 25 9 9-13 A J Martin 136 115 167b g Saddlers´ Hall (IRE) — Clahada Rose (IRE) (Roselier (FR))344 Pomme Tiepy 45 6 10-0 W P Mullins 137 159 159b m Apple Tree (FR) — Unetiepy (FR) (Marasali)F19 Preists Leap 21 9 11-2 Thomas Gerard O´Leary 153 137 170b g Luso — Royal Shares (IRE) (Royal Fountain)03P Puntal 25 13 9-7 D E Pipe 130 146 145b g Bering — Saveur (Ardross)511 Rambling Minster 49 11 10-6 K G Reveley 143 149 177b g Minster Son — Howcleuch (Buckskin (FR))/P0 Reveillez 25 10 10-9 Jonjo O´Neill 146 100 143gr g First Trump — Amalancher (USA) (Alleged (USA))3P6 Roll Along 22 9 11-4 Carl Llewellyn 155 164 175b g Carroll House — Callmartel (IRE) (Montelimar (USA))23P Sandhurst 32 9 9-2 Edgar Byrne 125 136 151b g Naheez (USA) — Cornsilk (IRE) (Sandhurst Prince)101 Seymour Weld 231 9 9-12 C T Pogson 135 158 172ch g Weld — Seymour News (Seymour Hicks (FR))1/9 Silver Birch 20 12 10-11 Gordon Elliott 148 - 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66b g Northern Flagship (USA) — Pillow Mint (USA) (Stage Door Johnny (USA))P5/ Zabenz 707 12 10-2 Philip Hobbs

**** that!

The weights are on RacingPost.com

I'm not sure if you need to be registered to see them as I am permeantly logged in but here's the link:

[You must be registered and logged in to see this link.]

Basically, the weights were announced in the second last week of February and at the latest forfeit stage yesterday, 88 entries had stood their ground. At the minute Snoopy Loopy is top weight, Clash, but I don't think he'll run meaning everything will go up 2lbs again. Also only 40 horses can run but at the minute 88 want to run so lots will be balloted out. I'd estimate the cut off point will be 10st 4lbs! If you fancy a horse with less than this weight, my advice is back him NOW! The chances are that he won't run and that fact will have been taken into account with regards his price. However you get your money back if he is balloted out - he has to be balloted out though.

Listen Offshore Account is far from a certainity. This is the Grand National, it is a race for the ordinary five-eighth - gives people a chance to have a once a year bet. The chances of something going wrong is five times greater in the National, you couldn't be overly confident about anything.

In saying that, every year, there is a few Irish plots. I reckon this is the plot! It or Ted Walsh's horse!

Thanks Loyal.

Got a tip for Black Apalachi but at 11-2 I reckon he is too heavy seeing as no horse as heavy as that has won since 1983. Would you say between 10-2 and 10-9 would be the target weight, Hedgehunter might have won at 11-1 but in my opinion he was the best Grand National horse since Red Rum.

The name Black Apalachi makes me cry. I backed him in all his races at double figure prices last year and he came second and third so many times I nearly gave up. But in I went again at 50/1 in the Grand National and he falls at the second fence!

Then first time up this season he wins at 14/1 and is automatically favourite for the National. Did I back him? No! No horse has broke my heart like he has.

Anyway when backing a horse in the National, look for one that hits on the following trends:

Weight
Back a horse with 11st 1lbs or less. Both well handicapped and badly handicapped horses have tried to carry more than this weight and failed miserably.

Age
Horses aged 7 or less have a terrible record primarily becauce few try. 11yos and 12yos have good records but the race is a lot different to what it was in the olden days so I would be inclined to concentrate on horses aged 8, 9 or 10!

Nationality
French breds have a record in the Grand National worse than Germany in world wars. However, I would be inclined to ignore this as they have been going closer and closer to winning each year. Also there ie little reasoning to back this stat up.

Form
Horses who have finished third in any of their last three races have won 20 of the last 20 races. Also horses who have run well in the Irish National, Welsh National, Hennessy Gold Cup and any Cheltenham festival race have a fantastic record.

Course
Backing horses who have run well at the course before is also a good idea.

The Grand National is essentially a race for the statsman. There are more stats than this and each year I like to draw hope a list of about 5 or 6 who meet all the trends.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:The name Black Apalachi makes me cry. I backed him in all his races at double figure prices last year and he came second and third so many times I nearly gave up. But in I went again at 50/1 in the Grand National and he falls at the second fence!

Then first time up this season he wins at 14/1 and is automatically favourite for the National. Did I back him? No! No horse has broke my heart like he has.

Anyway when backing a horse in the National, look for one that hits on the following trends:

Weight
Back a horse with 11st 1lbs or less. Both well handicapped and badly handicapped horses have tried to carry more than this weight and failed miserably.

Age
Horses aged 7 or less have a terrible record primarily becauce few try. 11yos and 12yos have good records but the race is a lot different to what it was in the olden days so I would be inclined to concentrate on horses aged 8, 9 or 10!

Nationality
French breds have a record in the Grand National worse than Germany in world wars. However, I would be inclined to ignore this as they have been going closer and closer to winning each year. Also there ie little reasoning to back this stat up.

Form
Horses who have finished third in any of their last three races have won 20 of the last 20 races. Also horses who have run well in the Irish National, Welsh National, Hennessy Gold Cup and any Cheltenham festival race have a fantastic record.

Course
Backing horses who have run well at the course before is also a good idea.

The Grand National is essentially a race for the statsman. There are more stats than this and each year I like to draw hope a list of about 5 or 6 who meet all the trends.

Excellent stuff Loyal. Can you do all that please - save us all doing it?

Haven't looked too closely myself yet!

But Brooklyn Brownie, Southern Vic, Offshore Account, Rambling Minster, Priests Leap and Character Building are the ones whose names are bouncing around. And I'd rule out the last three on account of age, ground and bridle horse respectively. Don't particularly like the first horse either.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:Haven't looked too closely myself yet!

But Brooklyn Brownie, Southern Vic, Offshore Account, Rambling Minster, Priests Leap and Character Building are the ones whose names are bouncing around. And I'd rule out the last three on account of age, ground and bridle horse respectively. Don't particularly like the first horse either.

Character Building delivered big time for me last Thursday so it owes me nothing!

Signal fire in 7.30 at dundalk

Bobs pride 9.00

2 x singles
1 x double

samin10 is that a tip or just a gut feeling?

Who would be the greatest horses of All time (National Hunt)? I saw that picture that says "the three kings" and it has Desert Orchid, Red Rum and Arkle. Although I think Desert Orchid is a great horse is one Gold Cup enough though to warrant greatness. Would horses such as Istabraq, Best Mate, L'Escargot and Hedgehunter not be more worthy.

I'm not following racing all that long so I don't know a great deal. Although, its widely believed that Arkle is the best of all time. But on Hedgehunter, I don't think he was that great, he had that bit of class alright but Beef or Salmon for example was a fair bit better than Hedgehunter I would have thought. And then on Istabraq, well he was a class apart too.

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:I'm not following racing all that long so I don't know a great deal. Although, its widely believed that Arkle is the best of all time. But on Hedgehunter, I don't think he was that great, he had that bit of class alright but Beef or Salmon for example was a fair bit better than Hedgehunter I would have thought. And then on Istabraq, well he was a class apart too.

Hedgehunter won 2 or 3 years ago didn't he? Loyal out of interest,has any horse ever won consecutive grand nationals?

On Paddy Power Derry have dropped from 6/1 to 5/1 for the USFC and for the AI they have droped hugley from 22/1 to 14/1!

Niamh_Derry wrote:

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:I'm not following racing all that long so I don't know a great deal. Although, its widely believed that Arkle is the best of all time. But on Hedgehunter, I don't think he was that great, he had that bit of class alright but Beef or Salmon for example was a fair bit better than Hedgehunter I would have thought. And then on Istabraq, well he was a class apart too.

Hedgehunter won 2 or 3 years ago didn't he? Loyal out of interest,has any horse ever won consecutive grand nationals?

Red Rum won it three times. He is the only horse to have won it that many times. It's almost impossible to win the race more than once (although, with a bit of luck, Hedgehunter would probably have did it) since you get crushed with weight once you win.