Horse racing

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Best Ante Post bets for the festival

Post  mossbags on Thu Jan 28, 2010 2:47 am

On small with Mille Chief from well back at 12s. Might throw a wee bit more on closer to the day, cannot see this wan being beaten.
More substantial investments on Twist Magic @ 6.
Also intend going all in on Quel Esprit for the Albert Bartlett but holding off for now as have a feeling might go out before comes back in, currently trading in and around 7ns'
Denman @ 9/4 looks reasonable too, can't see price coming in from that at any rate
CH hurdle best left alone until the day itself
Not fully convinced by Captain Bee Bee
Dunguib, Quevega way too short.
Big Bucks will no doubt win but again is way too short for an A/P bet.

Loyal, Samin,suggestions, tips, thoughts, winners?!
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Jan 28, 2010 9:31 am

A large double on Master Minded and Dunguib. Neither great prices but really cant see either being beat

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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Jan 28, 2010 10:06 am

Punjabi each way for champion hurdle.

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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Thu Jan 28, 2010 11:28 am

samin10 wrote:A large double on Master Minded and Dunguib. Neither great prices but really cant see either being beat

I can.

Master Minded - the case against
Right now, for me, the Queen Mother revolves around the one horse - Master Minded. If he repeats his 2008 run, 186 performance, then I'd agree with Samin10, I can't see him being beaten. But in six runs since, he hasn't got within 10lbs of that figure and in his most recent three runs, he probably hasn't got within 20lbs of it. Hence, its unlikely, he'll run another 186. And all that is good enough, but now factor in the horse coming back from injury. Nicholls says one thing one week and the opposite the next so I don't whether he goes straight to the Festival or takes in one of the trials - probably the Game Spirit. If he goes straight, then you are taking his well-being and fitness on Nicholls' word. And finally, unlike last year, he actually has a few proper challengers, a rejuvanted Twist Magic, Kalahari King and the leading Irish chaser Forpadydeplasterer. I'd wait and see how things pan out before piling into Master Minded, if he turns up at Newbury for the Game Spirit, it'll clear things up.

Dunguib - the case against
The Irish banker. Three words that in the past are worth a stone in weight to the horse that carries the tag. Now the only logical reason that I can come up with for Dunguib's price is a lack of proper opposition - at least in the formbook. Of course, he'll have plenty of opposition, much of it improving novices and something will come out and challenge him. Lack of opposition apart, Dunguib's price is based solely on his bumper form. And in my experience, no direct formlines can be drawn between bumper form and hurdling form. Different ball game. Dunguib ain't beat anything worth talking about it and so his price is way too short. I would necessarily say the horse won't win or can't win, it wouldn't surprise me if he did, but his price is actually so short that I'd lay him. He runs in Leopardstown in the Deloitte on Hennessy day so that will tell us more about him. For me, that run will be the deciding one in Dunguib's career.
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Thu Jan 28, 2010 11:40 am

For me ante-post selections, I'll just give four Irish horses who'll go there with strong chances:

Rite of Passage (Supreme Novices' Hurdle)
Solwhit (Champion Hurdle)
Forpadydeplasterer (Champion Chase)
Meath AllStar (Martin Pipe Conditional Hurdle)
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Jan 28, 2010 12:10 pm

in my opinion previous record at Cheltenham plays a big part in both odds and also my selections. It is true that Master Minded has not got back to 2008 standard but apart from his run when well chief beat him he has needed to produce that standard of a run. Not a big fan of Twist Magic either.

Dunguibs price is probably based on his bumper form but i dont think i have ever seen a more impressive champions bumper win than Dunguibs last year. Also unbeaten over hurdles all of which he was won easy regardless of who they were against.

I can understand why the prices would put you off loyal and to be fair more often than not so called certs can let you down at Cheltenham. However for me i think these two are the most likely certs

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Re: Horse racing

Post  mossbags on Thu Jan 28, 2010 4:16 pm

Master Minded would have to be a lay. Twist Magic has improved 4 fold this year whilst MM has gone the other way. Certainly at the current odds Twist Magic is where the value is at.
Hard to see Dunguib getting beat alright but at 5/4 in January, not worth a bet, unless to lay.
Rite of Passage might well be one to consider A/P as well
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Jan 28, 2010 4:18 pm

Master Minded will be a different horse come Cheltenham.

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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:16 pm

A couple of speculative bets I placed this evening:

Hurricane Fly - Champion Hurdle:
€3 back @ 170 = 507
€2.78 back @ 160 = 442
Total Potential Profit = €949

See U Bob - Arkle Trophy
€0.74 back @ 1000 = 739
€0.35 back @ 170 = 59
€2.91 back @ 160 = 463
€3 lay @ 150 = -450 (unmatched)
Total Potential Profit = €811

Herecomesthetruth - Ryanair Chase
€2 back @ 380 = 759
Total Potential Profit = €759
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Re: Horse racing

Post  JimWexford on Fri Feb 12, 2010 11:28 pm

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:A couple of speculative bets I placed this evening:

Hurricane Fly - Champion Hurdle:
€3 back @ 170 = 507
€2.78 back @ 160 = 442
Total Potential Profit = €949

See U Bob - Arkle Trophy
€0.74 back @ 1000 = 739
€0.35 back @ 170 = 59
€2.91 back @ 160 = 463
€3 lay @ 150 = -450 (unmatched)
Total Potential Profit = €811

Herecomesthetruth - Ryanair Chase
€2 back @ 380 = 759
Total Potential Profit = €759

What in the name of jaysus is all that above.
odds of 1000/1 on a horse I never heard of so its something else I haven't got a clue about.
Loyal explain above please
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 04, 2010 9:16 am

I have made my mind up, my original bet for Cheltenham will be a £10 yankee.

Dunguib
Master Minded
Garde Champatre
Kauto Star

Will pay about 750 IF all win. One of them will prob let me down so i will get money back hopefully

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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Thu Mar 04, 2010 10:48 am

My €10 Yankee:

Old McDonald - Champion Bumper - 20/1

Dun Doire - Foxhunters - 14/1

Meath AllStar - Martin Pipe - 20/1

Forpadydeplasterer - Queen Mother - 14/1
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 04, 2010 10:54 am

would be some bet if you could get 2 of them up.

Get them all and Paddy Power will be closing the doors

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Re: Horse racing

Post  Guest on Thu Mar 04, 2010 11:00 am

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:My €10 Yankee:

Old McDonald - Champion Bumper - 20/1

Dun Doire - Foxhunters - 14/1

Meath AllStar - Martin Pipe - 20/1

Forpadydeplasterer - Queen Mother - 14/1

approx 1.25 million if they all came in. Good luck

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Re: Horse racing

Post  clash-of-da-ash on Thu Mar 04, 2010 6:33 pm

Long Run - RSA Chase - 4/1
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Mon Mar 08, 2010 6:55 pm

Oh the excitement...............Almost a week left. Eight more sleeps.
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What is your target profit for Cheltenham?

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Mon Mar 08, 2010 7:17 pm

The tapes go up and the starters let them go first time!

-€400 for me.

Realistically, a loss of €400 isn't that much to pay to see jump racing's finest equine superstars.

Betfair account has been topped up and we're ready to rock!
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Bermuda_Bomber on Mon Mar 08, 2010 8:54 pm

Opening my account tonight, I'd be over the moon to break even but expect to be down, been a while since I've really followed it. Was down about 250 last year but up the year before by 700, need a return to form!
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Horse racing

Post  GAA-Fan on Mon Mar 08, 2010 8:54 pm

Post horse racing topics in here.
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Mon Mar 08, 2010 8:59 pm

You are a clown GF.
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Re: Horse racing

Post  mullins on Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:13 pm

Loyal2TheRoyal wrote:You are a clown GF.

why loyal
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:15 pm

What is your target profit for Cheltenham and Best Ante-Post bets for the Festival are two completely separate threads. Please tell me what similarities, if any, exist between the two?

Then to title the thread "Horse-Racing" displays ignorance of the highest oder. Horse-Racing could mean any number of things. Sure why don't we call all threads "Hurling Match" in the Hurling section? If this kind of moderation persists, this website will crash and burn.

You gave the Irish language a forum of its own and then try to put all racing threads into one thread.
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Jayo Cluxton on Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:21 pm

Loyal - its a bloody joke having a thread about every other race. This is a GAA website primarily. There are many dedicated racing sites. The vast majority of posters here are not into horse racing at all.

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Re: Horse racing

Post  Loyal2TheRoyal on Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:31 pm

You are a joke Jayo. This website is destined for failure because of the ignorance of its administators.

There was one thread about the Festival itself and one about the monetary aspect of things. Two entirely different things.

A thread called Horse Racing could be about anything. The latest point-to-point in Mallow, the road to the Kentucky Derby, Sea The Stars goes to stud, how can all those topics be considered the same thing?

Suppose we have to make room for the growing sport that is dentistry. Whens the world tooth pulling championships? Jeez, I hope it dosen't clash with Cheltenham, the racing industry will be hit hard with all the dentistry fans amongst us.
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Re: Horse racing

Post  Jayo Cluxton on Mon Mar 08, 2010 9:46 pm

Loyal - absolutely hilarious to have you of all people question anybody about starting a thread. You are the supreme master of the ridiculous thread - Mr Threadbare as I call you. However, I'm sure it can be arranged for two threads and just two threads about Cheltenham if a proper case is made.

The website may or may not be doomed to failure but a plethora of Cheltenham threads featuring your tips will most certainly lead to financial failure for many of the good people on here.

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